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Maybe, depending on how things develop.
In terms of the ongoing debate about gun control (or lack thereof), I have very little to add. It’s all the same rhetoric after every mass shooting, and to my knowledge, no one is saying anything that hasn't already been said a thousand times already – most of it useless, inane and completely out of touch with reality.
What’s interesting this time is who is saying it – namely the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, who have been listening to Marco Rubio’s rhetoric and Donald Trump’s nonsense, and they are not having it. They’ve got network coverage and social media accounts, and they know how to use them. They’ve been all over the CNNs and they’ve already managed to organize a nationwide student protest for next month.
Good for them!
The big question, of course, is: will it make a difference?
I’ve no idea. I’d like to think so. I’m not so sure it will. From my perspective, the situation breaks down like this:
1. The GOP have painted themselves so deeply into an ideological corner on this issue (among many) that they have nowhere else to go but to the left. It’s either that or double down. And any decision either way will be based on which position will cost them votes – or campaign funds. And it’s probably not lost on Rubio and the rest of the GOP that these angry kids are just a couple years away from being angry registered voters.
Meanwhile, the MSDHS students have already made sure that this mass shooting – unlike previous ones – hasn't faded from the news cycle as quickly as they typically do. I’m betting that at the very least, GOP operatives will be watching to see if this National School Walkout happens at significant enough levels to convince them to at least look at the numbers and see how many (if any) of their seats are in actual danger.
2. On the other hand, you can bet that Fox News and conservative talk radio personalities and Russian bots will be doing their part by doing hit jobs on the MSDHS students leading the protests, if they haven’t already. The interwub is already awash with the usual conspiracy theories (false flag, the Liberal Deep State Fake News Media paid these kids to go on TV and recite their anti-gun script, etc) – most of which seem to have been generated by Russian bots, but which will almost certainly be circulated by the Infowars/Fox crowd as fact. Trump has already fired a general “blame the victims” tweet – it’s probably only a matter of time before he starts getting personal. Once Fox & Friends goes that route, he’s sure to follow. Or vice versa.
And while most of us will of course see through that ploy, the fact is it’s not for us – it’s for the MAGA base currently powering the GOP who have been assured by the Big Guy that anything negative they hear in the press about Trump or themselves is 100% manufactured news and thus can be discarded. That pretty much guarantees that the GOP won’t shift their NRA-approved stance unless and until the MAGA base is sufficiently outnumbered by people who know better.
3. Meanwhile, it’s important to note that not all MSDHS students – to say nothing of high school students elsewhere – are onboard with gun control, even in the wake of this latest shooting. Put another way, this isn't a unified student protest – there will be dissenters, as there always is. Conservatives will exploit that for all it’s worth.
4. So all up, I think it’s too early to say whether the Parkland teens will be the tipping point in the Great Guns Debate – at least not in the short term. Once these teens become registered voters, we might see some impact.
It’s also possible that moderate GOP players might see the writing on the wall early, realize that they’re going to be on the losing side of the debate (at the polls, I mean) and make their own push for gun reform, if only in the name of saving the GOP from itself – one big-name GOP donor has already given an ultimatum on that score.
Some reports suggest that some GOP legislators are starting to move in that direction. I'll believe it when Trump signs it. Remember when the GOP was “open” to banning bump stocks after the Vegas shooting? Yeah. Well.
Kids won’t follow,
This is dF
In terms of the ongoing debate about gun control (or lack thereof), I have very little to add. It’s all the same rhetoric after every mass shooting, and to my knowledge, no one is saying anything that hasn't already been said a thousand times already – most of it useless, inane and completely out of touch with reality.
What’s interesting this time is who is saying it – namely the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, who have been listening to Marco Rubio’s rhetoric and Donald Trump’s nonsense, and they are not having it. They’ve got network coverage and social media accounts, and they know how to use them. They’ve been all over the CNNs and they’ve already managed to organize a nationwide student protest for next month.
Good for them!
The big question, of course, is: will it make a difference?
I’ve no idea. I’d like to think so. I’m not so sure it will. From my perspective, the situation breaks down like this:
1. The GOP have painted themselves so deeply into an ideological corner on this issue (among many) that they have nowhere else to go but to the left. It’s either that or double down. And any decision either way will be based on which position will cost them votes – or campaign funds. And it’s probably not lost on Rubio and the rest of the GOP that these angry kids are just a couple years away from being angry registered voters.
Meanwhile, the MSDHS students have already made sure that this mass shooting – unlike previous ones – hasn't faded from the news cycle as quickly as they typically do. I’m betting that at the very least, GOP operatives will be watching to see if this National School Walkout happens at significant enough levels to convince them to at least look at the numbers and see how many (if any) of their seats are in actual danger.
2. On the other hand, you can bet that Fox News and conservative talk radio personalities and Russian bots will be doing their part by doing hit jobs on the MSDHS students leading the protests, if they haven’t already. The interwub is already awash with the usual conspiracy theories (false flag, the Liberal Deep State Fake News Media paid these kids to go on TV and recite their anti-gun script, etc) – most of which seem to have been generated by Russian bots, but which will almost certainly be circulated by the Infowars/Fox crowd as fact. Trump has already fired a general “blame the victims” tweet – it’s probably only a matter of time before he starts getting personal. Once Fox & Friends goes that route, he’s sure to follow. Or vice versa.
And while most of us will of course see through that ploy, the fact is it’s not for us – it’s for the MAGA base currently powering the GOP who have been assured by the Big Guy that anything negative they hear in the press about Trump or themselves is 100% manufactured news and thus can be discarded. That pretty much guarantees that the GOP won’t shift their NRA-approved stance unless and until the MAGA base is sufficiently outnumbered by people who know better.
3. Meanwhile, it’s important to note that not all MSDHS students – to say nothing of high school students elsewhere – are onboard with gun control, even in the wake of this latest shooting. Put another way, this isn't a unified student protest – there will be dissenters, as there always is. Conservatives will exploit that for all it’s worth.
4. So all up, I think it’s too early to say whether the Parkland teens will be the tipping point in the Great Guns Debate – at least not in the short term. Once these teens become registered voters, we might see some impact.
It’s also possible that moderate GOP players might see the writing on the wall early, realize that they’re going to be on the losing side of the debate (at the polls, I mean) and make their own push for gun reform, if only in the name of saving the GOP from itself – one big-name GOP donor has already given an ultimatum on that score.
Some reports suggest that some GOP legislators are starting to move in that direction. I'll believe it when Trump signs it. Remember when the GOP was “open” to banning bump stocks after the Vegas shooting? Yeah. Well.
Kids won’t follow,
This is dF
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