![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Entry tags:
WILD IN THE STREETS (ANARCHY IN THE HK PART 389)
[Sorry this is tl;dr, but there's a lot to process here. – Mgmt]
A lot has happened since last month’s post about 1 million people taking to the streets to protest a proposed bill that would enable extradition between, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and mainland China.
Wikipedia is keeping track of it all here if you need a quick catch-up, but suffice to say that since the last post, there have been lots more protests (peak attendance: 2 million) – some sensible, some otherwise – that have settled into a fairly predictable pattern of peaceful protests in the daytime, after which the hardcore guys get on with the violence. To be clear, for the most part, the anti-govt protesters mostly favour violence against property and cops (and only if the latter get in their way), while the pro-govt protesters favour violence against anti-govt protesters – to include apparently hiring triad gangs to beat the hell out of them with bamboo sticks.
This is expected to go on all summer long. It’s ugly and depressing and I don’t really know where all this is going.
There’s way too much here for me to comment on in one post, so just a couple of thoughts:
1. I’m very much against violence in any form, and I’m critical of the hardcore protesters who at this stage don’t seem to have any real game plan apart from generally smashing shit and beating up any cops that get in their way. To be clear, the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, but a few hundred of these guys are in this for the violence, if only because they’re so angry with the govt that they gotta beat up someone, and the police are a conveniently available face of the govt for them to smash against.
2. At the same time, I do think the police bear a lot of responsibility here. It’s no coincidence that the protests generally go peacefully until the riot police show up, which has a tendency to make things worse. Law and order and clearing the streets are all fine and well, but it’s also clear that the tear gas, rubber bullets and generally clubbing people on the head aren’t really working as a deterrent – not least because police brutality is one of the grievances the protesters are angry about.
3. That said, ultimately I think the HKG – especially chief executive Carrie Lam – bears most of the responsibility for all this.
Lam has handled this so badly it’s hard to know where to begin. The short version is that she treated the extradition bill as a simple plugging of a legal loophole, then seemed genuinely baffled why anyone would find this objectionable or worrying, as if we don’t know the kind of judicial system China has or how it works. Her initial response to critics was to ignore them, then as the protests grew bigger she tried to reassure everyone with “trust me, we’ll only actual criminals will be extradited and HK will have any final say against Beijing in cases where we think it’s a political case” – which is hard to believe when Beijing frequently reminds us at times like these that actually they do have ultimately authority over the HKG’s decisions on legal issues and if you don’t like it, then tough.
4. Lam’s greatest failure in all this is failing to understand why people were upset over the extradition bill, as well as the broader context in which all this is happening. Put simply, the people protesting in the streets aren’t just upset about the extradition law – they’re upset because they see no future in HK. Everything costs too much (especially housing), jobs don’t pay enough, the wealth gap is increasing, and their future involves HK eventually becoming part of a ruthless totalitarian regime. We can’t even hold the chief executive accountable with elections because the office is effectively appointed by Beijing. The protesters are worried about the future, and the HKG is giving them no reason to hope for anything better. At least half a dozen young people have committed suicide over this issue. And no one is listening.
5. And they’re not likely to start listening now. Yesterday Beijing’s local office held a rare press conference that aimed to not only fully support Lam and the HK police and reaffirm their authority, but also framing the current problem is entirely the fault of lawless protesters disrespecting that authority, which is in their view the only problem that needs solving. It was carefully worded, but the message was clear – unauthorized protests and violence are illegal and the govt has the right to jail you for it, the end.
And, you know, technically they're right. The anti-govt protesters have justified their escalation by pointing out the peaceful protests didn't work, but violent protests don’t work either – all they do is give the govt the excuse it needs to ignore yr grievances put you in jail. Yes that sucks, but that’s how real life works. At the same time, ignoring grievances also isn’t working, which is why we’ve arrived at this impasse.
6. Even so, despite public support for Lam, I’m sure that privately Beijing is very annoyed with her, because what started as concerns over an extradition law that no one really wanted (not even Taiwan) has blossomed into constant massive protests, street violence and calls for full-on democracy. Indeed, the extradition bill is practically dead in the water in terms of legislative action, but this isn’t really about that anymore (see Point 4, above).
Beijing has seen this before – in the summer of 1989 – and we all know how that ended.
7. Which raises the question: will HK become the new Tiananmen Square Massacree?
I really don’t know.
Beijing only has so much patience for this sort of thing. State media on the mainland (which is portraying the protests as anti-China treason) is already calling for a hard crackdown, and the head of the PLA has already said, “Call us if you need us, we’re happy to help.”
One thing in our favour is that even Xi Jinping knows that the optics of a full-on crackdown in HK will be worse than a crackdown in its own cities. And that matters more today than it did in 1989, because China is in the middle of building itself up as an engine for international economic supremacy. So it has more to lose now than it did then.
Also, unlike with Tiananmen Square, a HK Massacree is likely to be thoroughly documented on video that will undoubtedly go viral, which makes plausible deniability harder (though perhaps not impossible in these days where we’re encouraged to consume media that tells us what we want to hear).
But I’m not too optimistic. The outcome will probably depend on who blinks first. Neither side looks ready to back down. On the other hand, this has been going on for eight weeks now, and the spectacle of street violence on TV every other night is exhausting and demoralizing. Even people who support the demands of the protesters are starting to wonder how long this is going to go on. The hardcore guys no longer seem to have a game plan apart from protest, disrupt things, smash shit, wait for the cops to show up and fight them, and maybe THIS time the HKG will give us what we want.
This can’t go on indefinitely – and further escalation probably means people might start getting killed. If that happens, all bets are off.
I hope it doesn't come to that. I can’t say for sure that it won’t. What I am sure of is that there’s no version of this where we all go back to business as usual. The city has ripped itself apart over this, and no matter what happens next, most of us will be keeping an eye on 2047 with fear and trepidation.
Keep hope alive,
This is dF
A lot has happened since last month’s post about 1 million people taking to the streets to protest a proposed bill that would enable extradition between, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and mainland China.
Wikipedia is keeping track of it all here if you need a quick catch-up, but suffice to say that since the last post, there have been lots more protests (peak attendance: 2 million) – some sensible, some otherwise – that have settled into a fairly predictable pattern of peaceful protests in the daytime, after which the hardcore guys get on with the violence. To be clear, for the most part, the anti-govt protesters mostly favour violence against property and cops (and only if the latter get in their way), while the pro-govt protesters favour violence against anti-govt protesters – to include apparently hiring triad gangs to beat the hell out of them with bamboo sticks.
This is expected to go on all summer long. It’s ugly and depressing and I don’t really know where all this is going.
There’s way too much here for me to comment on in one post, so just a couple of thoughts:
1. I’m very much against violence in any form, and I’m critical of the hardcore protesters who at this stage don’t seem to have any real game plan apart from generally smashing shit and beating up any cops that get in their way. To be clear, the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, but a few hundred of these guys are in this for the violence, if only because they’re so angry with the govt that they gotta beat up someone, and the police are a conveniently available face of the govt for them to smash against.
2. At the same time, I do think the police bear a lot of responsibility here. It’s no coincidence that the protests generally go peacefully until the riot police show up, which has a tendency to make things worse. Law and order and clearing the streets are all fine and well, but it’s also clear that the tear gas, rubber bullets and generally clubbing people on the head aren’t really working as a deterrent – not least because police brutality is one of the grievances the protesters are angry about.
3. That said, ultimately I think the HKG – especially chief executive Carrie Lam – bears most of the responsibility for all this.
Lam has handled this so badly it’s hard to know where to begin. The short version is that she treated the extradition bill as a simple plugging of a legal loophole, then seemed genuinely baffled why anyone would find this objectionable or worrying, as if we don’t know the kind of judicial system China has or how it works. Her initial response to critics was to ignore them, then as the protests grew bigger she tried to reassure everyone with “trust me, we’ll only actual criminals will be extradited and HK will have any final say against Beijing in cases where we think it’s a political case” – which is hard to believe when Beijing frequently reminds us at times like these that actually they do have ultimately authority over the HKG’s decisions on legal issues and if you don’t like it, then tough.
4. Lam’s greatest failure in all this is failing to understand why people were upset over the extradition bill, as well as the broader context in which all this is happening. Put simply, the people protesting in the streets aren’t just upset about the extradition law – they’re upset because they see no future in HK. Everything costs too much (especially housing), jobs don’t pay enough, the wealth gap is increasing, and their future involves HK eventually becoming part of a ruthless totalitarian regime. We can’t even hold the chief executive accountable with elections because the office is effectively appointed by Beijing. The protesters are worried about the future, and the HKG is giving them no reason to hope for anything better. At least half a dozen young people have committed suicide over this issue. And no one is listening.
5. And they’re not likely to start listening now. Yesterday Beijing’s local office held a rare press conference that aimed to not only fully support Lam and the HK police and reaffirm their authority, but also framing the current problem is entirely the fault of lawless protesters disrespecting that authority, which is in their view the only problem that needs solving. It was carefully worded, but the message was clear – unauthorized protests and violence are illegal and the govt has the right to jail you for it, the end.
And, you know, technically they're right. The anti-govt protesters have justified their escalation by pointing out the peaceful protests didn't work, but violent protests don’t work either – all they do is give the govt the excuse it needs to ignore yr grievances put you in jail. Yes that sucks, but that’s how real life works. At the same time, ignoring grievances also isn’t working, which is why we’ve arrived at this impasse.
6. Even so, despite public support for Lam, I’m sure that privately Beijing is very annoyed with her, because what started as concerns over an extradition law that no one really wanted (not even Taiwan) has blossomed into constant massive protests, street violence and calls for full-on democracy. Indeed, the extradition bill is practically dead in the water in terms of legislative action, but this isn’t really about that anymore (see Point 4, above).
Beijing has seen this before – in the summer of 1989 – and we all know how that ended.
7. Which raises the question: will HK become the new Tiananmen Square Massacree?
I really don’t know.
Beijing only has so much patience for this sort of thing. State media on the mainland (which is portraying the protests as anti-China treason) is already calling for a hard crackdown, and the head of the PLA has already said, “Call us if you need us, we’re happy to help.”
One thing in our favour is that even Xi Jinping knows that the optics of a full-on crackdown in HK will be worse than a crackdown in its own cities. And that matters more today than it did in 1989, because China is in the middle of building itself up as an engine for international economic supremacy. So it has more to lose now than it did then.
Also, unlike with Tiananmen Square, a HK Massacree is likely to be thoroughly documented on video that will undoubtedly go viral, which makes plausible deniability harder (though perhaps not impossible in these days where we’re encouraged to consume media that tells us what we want to hear).
But I’m not too optimistic. The outcome will probably depend on who blinks first. Neither side looks ready to back down. On the other hand, this has been going on for eight weeks now, and the spectacle of street violence on TV every other night is exhausting and demoralizing. Even people who support the demands of the protesters are starting to wonder how long this is going to go on. The hardcore guys no longer seem to have a game plan apart from protest, disrupt things, smash shit, wait for the cops to show up and fight them, and maybe THIS time the HKG will give us what we want.
This can’t go on indefinitely – and further escalation probably means people might start getting killed. If that happens, all bets are off.
I hope it doesn't come to that. I can’t say for sure that it won’t. What I am sure of is that there’s no version of this where we all go back to business as usual. The city has ripped itself apart over this, and no matter what happens next, most of us will be keeping an eye on 2047 with fear and trepidation.
Keep hope alive,
This is dF