IRAN SO FAR AWAY (2015 MIX)
Apr. 8th, 2015 10:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrogThere is dithering about Iran.
Specifically, there is dithering over the deal Presidente Obama has struck with Iran regarding its nuclear program.
I’ll save myself a lot of typing by linking to this Economist article, with is the most level-headed assessment I’ve read about the Iran deal. The upshot: it’s not great, but if the objective is to (1) keep Iran from making a nuke and (2) avoid a war with Iran, it’s the best option under the circumstances.
I’ll add that I’m not that impressed with the criticism from Republicans over the deal. For one thing, they’re programmed to criticize any decision Obama makes about anything as the worst decision ever, particularly regarding foreign policy, and especially with a POTUS election kicking off. (I mean, these are largely the same people who actually wrote Iran a letter during the negotiation process saying they wouldn’t honor any deal they made with Obama even before they even knew what the terms of the deal would be. So it’s not like I can take them seriously.)
There are some legit reasons for opposing the deal, and some Repubs may be motivated by those as well. Certainly some Congressional Democrats are. I understand that. The thing is, no one is offering up any better ideas – at least not realistic ones. Yes, I know they’re saying the terms aren’t hardcore enough and they’d only back a deal that goes something like “You destroy all yr centrifuges and we don’t bomb you back to the Stone Age.” Written in ALL CAPS for effect. (I'm exaggerating, but you get the idea.)
The problem is that they want something they can't have. Iran wouldn’t take a deal like the ones Republican hawks are suggesting in a million years. And why should they? A “deal” involves both parties getting something they want. The alternatives being described by GOP hawks (and Binyamin Netanyahu, for that matter) are more like ultimatums rather than deals. Okay, but they don’t really need Iran at a negotiating table for that. You could just send them an email.
In any case, with all the political posturing and rhetoric flying around, it’s easy to forget what the overall objective is here: how to stop Iran from developing a nuke.
I’m not saying the Obama deal will succeed in achieving that. Neither is The Economist. A lot more work has to be done to make sure the details are workable and the terms enforced effectively. That won’t be easy, not least because if the GOP and Israel are right about one thing, it’s that the Iranian regime can’t be trusted. No one’s really disputing that, as far as I know.
But I don’t see how playing Big Dick Hardball will get better results. Since Iran already has nuclear facilities, we can’t really stop them from making a bomb by refusing to negotiate and doubling down on sanctions until they give up. We’ve been doing that for over a decade, and Iran’s nuclear capabilities have gotten exponentially better every year.
The remaining option is to do an Iraq on them – which might stop Iran from having a bomb (for awhile), but it would come at the cost of a trillion dollars, a decade or two of occupation, hundreds of thousands of dead people, and destabilizing the entire region.
So no, the Obama deal is probably the best option going if you want a shot at actually keeping Iran from having a bomb. However, if yr only real objective is to talk trash about Obama and Iran for maximum political advantage – which I think is all Repubs are really interested in at the moment – then okay, carry on, and good luck with that.
Deal or no deal,
This is dF
Specifically, there is dithering over the deal Presidente Obama has struck with Iran regarding its nuclear program.
I’ll save myself a lot of typing by linking to this Economist article, with is the most level-headed assessment I’ve read about the Iran deal. The upshot: it’s not great, but if the objective is to (1) keep Iran from making a nuke and (2) avoid a war with Iran, it’s the best option under the circumstances.
I’ll add that I’m not that impressed with the criticism from Republicans over the deal. For one thing, they’re programmed to criticize any decision Obama makes about anything as the worst decision ever, particularly regarding foreign policy, and especially with a POTUS election kicking off. (I mean, these are largely the same people who actually wrote Iran a letter during the negotiation process saying they wouldn’t honor any deal they made with Obama even before they even knew what the terms of the deal would be. So it’s not like I can take them seriously.)
There are some legit reasons for opposing the deal, and some Repubs may be motivated by those as well. Certainly some Congressional Democrats are. I understand that. The thing is, no one is offering up any better ideas – at least not realistic ones. Yes, I know they’re saying the terms aren’t hardcore enough and they’d only back a deal that goes something like “You destroy all yr centrifuges and we don’t bomb you back to the Stone Age.” Written in ALL CAPS for effect. (I'm exaggerating, but you get the idea.)
The problem is that they want something they can't have. Iran wouldn’t take a deal like the ones Republican hawks are suggesting in a million years. And why should they? A “deal” involves both parties getting something they want. The alternatives being described by GOP hawks (and Binyamin Netanyahu, for that matter) are more like ultimatums rather than deals. Okay, but they don’t really need Iran at a negotiating table for that. You could just send them an email.
In any case, with all the political posturing and rhetoric flying around, it’s easy to forget what the overall objective is here: how to stop Iran from developing a nuke.
I’m not saying the Obama deal will succeed in achieving that. Neither is The Economist. A lot more work has to be done to make sure the details are workable and the terms enforced effectively. That won’t be easy, not least because if the GOP and Israel are right about one thing, it’s that the Iranian regime can’t be trusted. No one’s really disputing that, as far as I know.
But I don’t see how playing Big Dick Hardball will get better results. Since Iran already has nuclear facilities, we can’t really stop them from making a bomb by refusing to negotiate and doubling down on sanctions until they give up. We’ve been doing that for over a decade, and Iran’s nuclear capabilities have gotten exponentially better every year.
The remaining option is to do an Iraq on them – which might stop Iran from having a bomb (for awhile), but it would come at the cost of a trillion dollars, a decade or two of occupation, hundreds of thousands of dead people, and destabilizing the entire region.
So no, the Obama deal is probably the best option going if you want a shot at actually keeping Iran from having a bomb. However, if yr only real objective is to talk trash about Obama and Iran for maximum political advantage – which I think is all Repubs are really interested in at the moment – then okay, carry on, and good luck with that.
Deal or no deal,
This is dF
