My take on the midterms is a little different, though I guess it depends what you mean by "finished".
I do think that regardless of whether Kavanaugh is confirmed, the GOP is very likely to lose at least one branch of Congress by a margin that could be as big as the 1994 wave that helped them take it from the Demos. That may send a message to the GOP leadership.
On the other hand, a minority GOP will still have a sizeable presence in both houses, and meanwhile, a good 40% of the country is fully behind Trump for all kinds of reasons. So I don't think the GOP is going anywhere, and I don't think they're going to change their tune if/when they lose because that's a big MAGA base for them to establish a comeback.
Of course, thanks to the 2016 election my prediction capabilities are pretty much shot because all the old rules that govern electoral politics don't seem to apply anymore, so for all I know the GOP majority may get even bigger. I'm sure Russian bots will be a factor either way because I'm seeing at least as many fake news memes and hoaxes as I did in 2016 and people just keep insisting on circulating them even though we've been told repeatedly they're probably bot-generated and full of misinformation, but nooooooo ....
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
ninetydegrees
no subject
on 2018-10-02 01:04 pm (UTC)I do think that regardless of whether Kavanaugh is confirmed, the GOP is very likely to lose at least one branch of Congress by a margin that could be as big as the 1994 wave that helped them take it from the Demos. That may send a message to the GOP leadership.
On the other hand, a minority GOP will still have a sizeable presence in both houses, and meanwhile, a good 40% of the country is fully behind Trump for all kinds of reasons. So I don't think the GOP is going anywhere, and I don't think they're going to change their tune if/when they lose because that's a big MAGA base for them to establish a comeback.
Of course, thanks to the 2016 election my prediction capabilities are pretty much shot because all the old rules that govern electoral politics don't seem to apply anymore, so for all I know the GOP majority may get even bigger. I'm sure Russian bots will be a factor either way because I'm seeing at least as many fake news memes and hoaxes as I did in 2016 and people just keep insisting on circulating them even though we've been told repeatedly they're probably bot-generated and full of misinformation, but nooooooo ....