Do you at least see voters coming out in larger numbers than they did in the last election, or will the combination of apathy and voter nullification succeed in giving realdonaldtrump a second term?
I don't see voter turnout being that much larger, probably no bigger than 2008, which was only 1.5 percentage points larger than 2016. People always talk about how voter turnout will be huge because the current POTUS is so awful, but even in 2008 after eight years of Bush II, turnout was 61.6%, which was only 0.5% higher than 2004.
Remember too that turnout varies by state, so the battleground states are where turnout will make a greater difference (as well as whether Republicans have already passed laws in those states in the hopes of keeping turnout low).
Whether that gives Trump an edge depends on other things, from the extent of interference by Russia to the state of the economy this time next year and who his opponent ends up being, among other things (many people stay out of it because they don't like either choice).
Anyway, there are enough variables there that I think Trump could pull it off. It's too early to say, obviously, I'm just saying that fact that he's as bad as he is and still has an approval rating above 40% (it's around 43% on average this week) should tell us his defeat isn't guaranteed.
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ninetydegrees
no subject
on 2019-07-03 03:29 am (UTC)I don't see voter turnout being that much larger, probably no bigger than 2008, which was only 1.5 percentage points larger than 2016. People always talk about how voter turnout will be huge because the current POTUS is so awful, but even in 2008 after eight years of Bush II, turnout was 61.6%, which was only 0.5% higher than 2004.
Remember too that turnout varies by state, so the battleground states are where turnout will make a greater difference (as well as whether Republicans have already passed laws in those states in the hopes of keeping turnout low).
Whether that gives Trump an edge depends on other things, from the extent of interference by Russia to the state of the economy this time next year and who his opponent ends up being, among other things (many people stay out of it because they don't like either choice).
Anyway, there are enough variables there that I think Trump could pull it off. It's too early to say, obviously, I'm just saying that fact that he's as bad as he is and still has an approval rating above 40% (it's around 43% on average this week) should tell us his defeat isn't guaranteed.