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Nov. 8th, 2011
DVDs ARE THE NEW VINYL
Nov. 8th, 2011 11:27 amITEM: Hollywood movie studios are making plans to kill off the DVD format because everyone watches movies on the Internet now.
Well, not everyone. But with home entertainment revenues down 40% and with viewers becoming armed with more and more consumer-electronics with Internet connectivity, to include TV sets, in the next few years, studios are realizing they need to embrace direct downloads and streaming to keep up with demand (and, presumably, to keep people from resorting to torrent sites like they do now).
While that does indicate a drastic change in mindset (imagine the music industry deciding to kill the CD format in favor of iTunes and Spotify), I'm a little skeptical that DVDs (whether classic DVDs or these fancy Blu-Rays the kids enjoy today or whatever) are going to go anywhere anytime soon.
There will always be a market for physical media as long as the number of people who (1) have a broadband connection) and (2) use that connection to watch movies online is smaller than people who don't. Online video will have to hit some kind of critical mass to justify dropping one format in favor of another. That’ll probably happen maybe 20 years from now, but not in “the next few years”.
The other thing is that they have to make online streaming video as attractive as possible, and that’s going to involve doing things that make movie studios nervous – like letting people watch stuff on as many screens as possible, be it a flat-panel TV set, a laptop, an iPad or a smartphone. That creates a lot of licensing headaches and DRM compatibility issues, and goes against their preferred business model of charging you per-view or requiring separate subscriptions for each individual device (ka-ching!).
This is, after all, the same movie industry that wants to make it a felony to share yr Netflix account with anyone else.
So yeah, even if Hollywood wants to drop the DVD format, I don’t think the market will let them. Not if they're going to replace it with an inferior and inconvenient experience, and not when people have torrent sites as an alternate option.
Slipped discs,
This is dF
Well, not everyone. But with home entertainment revenues down 40% and with viewers becoming armed with more and more consumer-electronics with Internet connectivity, to include TV sets, in the next few years, studios are realizing they need to embrace direct downloads and streaming to keep up with demand (and, presumably, to keep people from resorting to torrent sites like they do now).
While that does indicate a drastic change in mindset (imagine the music industry deciding to kill the CD format in favor of iTunes and Spotify), I'm a little skeptical that DVDs (whether classic DVDs or these fancy Blu-Rays the kids enjoy today or whatever) are going to go anywhere anytime soon.
There will always be a market for physical media as long as the number of people who (1) have a broadband connection) and (2) use that connection to watch movies online is smaller than people who don't. Online video will have to hit some kind of critical mass to justify dropping one format in favor of another. That’ll probably happen maybe 20 years from now, but not in “the next few years”.
The other thing is that they have to make online streaming video as attractive as possible, and that’s going to involve doing things that make movie studios nervous – like letting people watch stuff on as many screens as possible, be it a flat-panel TV set, a laptop, an iPad or a smartphone. That creates a lot of licensing headaches and DRM compatibility issues, and goes against their preferred business model of charging you per-view or requiring separate subscriptions for each individual device (ka-ching!).
This is, after all, the same movie industry that wants to make it a felony to share yr Netflix account with anyone else.
So yeah, even if Hollywood wants to drop the DVD format, I don’t think the market will let them. Not if they're going to replace it with an inferior and inconvenient experience, and not when people have torrent sites as an alternate option.
Slipped discs,
This is dF
CDs ARE ALSO THE NEW VINYL. AGAIN.
Nov. 8th, 2011 09:26 pmAnd of course, while I was busy typing that last post about the death of DVDs, dr_p_venkman goes and directs my attention to this piece from Register Hardware that the music industry will be killing off the CD format at the end of next year in favor of downloads.
Like the previous article, the source for this is unnamed “insider” sources who could, really, be anybody. In any case, the rumor is that CDs will only exist for big-name artists and special-edition releases – everything else will be download-only.
My take on this is similar to DVDs – I’m sure it will happen one day, but I don’t think it will be next year unless enough music fans have a broadband connection.
That said – because the movie business and the music business work on slightly different business models, and because the music industry is a lot further ahead in the digital distribution space – an argument could be made that CDs will disappear before DVDs.
It’s entirely plausible that CD releases will soon be limited to the top-roster artists, at least for major labels. Lower-tier acts have a hard enough time paying their way without the overhead costs of physical media production and distribution. Download-only releases are probably the only way the majors could afford to keep supporting new bands.
Indie labels are already heading in that direction (which is why, for the most part, indie labels are a lot better at digital music sales than the major labels are), and while some may keep CD as an option, they’re probably in even less of a position to cover the cost of CDs. Many of them are also arguably aimed at a demographic that can at the very least afford a smartphone and a data plan.
On the other hand, CDs were supposed to have killed off vinyl records way back in the 80s. And vinyl has survived. Which brings up the other factor at play here: sound quality.
Not every audiophile agrees that vinyl sounds better than CDs (or vice versa), but just about all of them agree that downloads (whether they’re MP3, AAC, Ogg or whatever) sound like crap compared to both. That may change once everyone has (1) bottomless storage capacity and (2) a fiber-optic-level connection, which will enable people to download lossless (i.e. uncompressed) files as easily and as fast as they can download MP3s on a DSL line now.
It’s also possible that the current generation of music fans being raised on MP3s are so used to that quality level that they think music is supposed to sound like that, so it may not make much difference. But us older f***ers can tell the bloody difference. So can the musicians who make this stuff. And we’re arguably the bigger market. For now, anyway.
So while we may start seeing less of them in the next few years, I wouldn’t write CDs off as a format for awhile yet, either.
At least I hope not. Because thanks to the music industry’s convoluted and geographically defined licensing policies, CDs are currently the only way I can get a lot of the kind of music I want to listen to. There is no iTunes in Hong Kong, and Amazon refuses to let me buy digital-downloads. They’re going to have to at least get that sorted if they expect me to go along with a download-only business model.
No music no life,
This is dF
Like the previous article, the source for this is unnamed “insider” sources who could, really, be anybody. In any case, the rumor is that CDs will only exist for big-name artists and special-edition releases – everything else will be download-only.
My take on this is similar to DVDs – I’m sure it will happen one day, but I don’t think it will be next year unless enough music fans have a broadband connection.
That said – because the movie business and the music business work on slightly different business models, and because the music industry is a lot further ahead in the digital distribution space – an argument could be made that CDs will disappear before DVDs.
It’s entirely plausible that CD releases will soon be limited to the top-roster artists, at least for major labels. Lower-tier acts have a hard enough time paying their way without the overhead costs of physical media production and distribution. Download-only releases are probably the only way the majors could afford to keep supporting new bands.
Indie labels are already heading in that direction (which is why, for the most part, indie labels are a lot better at digital music sales than the major labels are), and while some may keep CD as an option, they’re probably in even less of a position to cover the cost of CDs. Many of them are also arguably aimed at a demographic that can at the very least afford a smartphone and a data plan.
On the other hand, CDs were supposed to have killed off vinyl records way back in the 80s. And vinyl has survived. Which brings up the other factor at play here: sound quality.
Not every audiophile agrees that vinyl sounds better than CDs (or vice versa), but just about all of them agree that downloads (whether they’re MP3, AAC, Ogg or whatever) sound like crap compared to both. That may change once everyone has (1) bottomless storage capacity and (2) a fiber-optic-level connection, which will enable people to download lossless (i.e. uncompressed) files as easily and as fast as they can download MP3s on a DSL line now.
It’s also possible that the current generation of music fans being raised on MP3s are so used to that quality level that they think music is supposed to sound like that, so it may not make much difference. But us older f***ers can tell the bloody difference. So can the musicians who make this stuff. And we’re arguably the bigger market. For now, anyway.
So while we may start seeing less of them in the next few years, I wouldn’t write CDs off as a format for awhile yet, either.
At least I hope not. Because thanks to the music industry’s convoluted and geographically defined licensing policies, CDs are currently the only way I can get a lot of the kind of music I want to listen to. There is no iTunes in Hong Kong, and Amazon refuses to let me buy digital-downloads. They’re going to have to at least get that sorted if they expect me to go along with a download-only business model.
No music no life,
This is dF