AND SO MUCH FOR ERIC CANTOR

And now, emergency political analysis from Team Def Political Fuckery Chief Lucky Bensonhurst

You’ve heard by now that Eric Cantor lost the Virginia mid-term primary to Tea Partier David Brat. And the reaction around the blogscape has been something like this.



Of course, it won’t be all that funny if Brat goes on to defeat the Democrat challenger, Jack Trammel. But there’s just something irresistibly delicious about seeing one of the most conservative establishment Republicans in Congress – who has pandered to the batshit wing of the conservative bloc to the point of letting them basically run the House and oppose every single thing Presidente Obama has ever tried to get done – have his ass handed to him by the same constituency because he’s now too liberal for them.

On the other hand, the reports I’m seeing suggest that’s not exactly what happened. Cantor didn't lose because he didn’t tow the Tea Party line – he lost because he’s an arrogant jerk who ran a lazy campaign that didn't take Brat seriously, couldn’t keep his story straight on immigration reform, and spent more time lobbying for a House Speaker gig than he did in his own district actually listening to his constituents. Brat listened to them, and he beat Cantor’s ass like a gong.

It says a lot when you lose an election even when yr spending more money on steakhouses than yr opponent has spent during his entire campaign.

Actually, that’s one of the more interesting aspects to this: the results fly in the face of tradition that the biggest war chest wins the election. Which in itself is amusing because several prominent Tea Party groups are claiming responsibility for Brat’s success even though none of them contributed a dime to his campaign fund.

Now that’s fiscal responsibility.

Well, you can’t argue with the results. And wouldn’t it be ironic if this turned out to be the template for future Tea Party victories, which would mean that the Tea Party would get full credit for getting Big Money out of politics? How would you like to be Rachel Maddow having to go on TV and admit that?

I’m kidding, of course. That won’t actually happen. I’m reasonably sure this was a fluke based more on the fact that Cantor just assumed he would win and didn’t take either his opponent or his own constituency seriously enough.

Which is why I’m not really impressed with claims that Cantor’s loss proves the Tea Party is the mainstream Republican constituency now.

Ha ha, but no.

To be sure, the Tea Party will milk this for everything it’s worth – either to prove the GOP is washed up as a conservative party, or strongarm the establishment even further to the right. And I’m sure the House GOP will continue taking its cues from the Tea Party wing – at least while Obama is still POTUS. But that’s the status quo now. And the degree to which that is maintained will depend on (1) Brat actually winning Cantor’s seat, (2) existing Tea Party Congresspeople keeping theirs and (2) a significant number of establishment Republicans suffering Cantor’s fate.

The first one could happen, if only because Cantor’s district is heavily conservative, so Jack Trammel will have a hard road no matter who he goes up against (though he stands a better chance against a fellow challenger than a brand-name incumbent like Cantor). The second seems likely – they might lose a few seats, but not many.

The third one seems less likely to happen now that they’ve seen Cantor burn. It wasn’t all that likely to start with. The Establishment is still smarting from Tea Party’s “our way or fuck you” shutdown shenanigans, and John Boehner, for one, would much rather be making deals than playing ideological hardball. The prospect of more Tea Party creatures in the House can't be a pleasant one, and with their sites set on reclaiming the Senate this year, the GOP has already been looking for ways to make sure the Tea Party doesn’t fuck it up for them.

So if Republican politicians didn’t take their Tea Party challengers seriously before, you can bet they are now.

Of course, anything can happen in politics, so we’ll have to wait until November to know for sure. But I’m pretty sure this is only big news because of Cantor’s role as House Whip. It’s heavy on symbolism, but it doesn’t herald any real trend. In the end, it will all come down to a case study of an overconfident man who had a clear path all the way to the end zone and still managed to drop the ball.

Not that it matters. Cantor probably already has his million-dollar K Street lobbyist gig on lined up. So I wouldn’t get too smug about his defeat.

– L. Bensonhurst