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HONG KONG: STILL OCCUPIED
Nov. 17th, 2014 12:36 pmBut not for much longer.
[Background here]
It’s probably as well. After 50+ days, the protesters have accomplished more or less what I presumed they would – namely, bubkis.
Which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Neither side has been willing (or able) to compromise, and it’s clear now the only thing they ever wanted to accomplish with “dialogue" was to explain their position more clearly – as if the problem this whole time was both sides not fully understanding the other’s position. It’s sort of like that t-shirt slogan: “I’m not arguing with you, I’m just trying to explain why I’m right”.
And let’s admit: when yr tactics have shifted to pointless, dumb publicity stunts like trying to fly to Beijing to meet with China officials and explaining to THEM why yr right – and having the nerve to act surprised when HK Immigration doesn’t let you on the plane – yr pretty much out of ideas.
Whatever one thinks about universal suffrage, civic nomination or Boss Leung, the fact of the matter is that the Umbrella Revolution was doomed to fail the moment they started barricading the roads, and only really got the momentum they did because the HK Police went overboard with the tear gas on Day 1. The novelty has long since worn off, and the protesters have never been in a position to make the demands they’ve been making – worse, they’re the only ones who don’t know that.
That’s not to say the HK Govt hasn’t brought a lot of this grief on itself. It has. And none of is to say that pro-democracy activists don’t have other options to press their cause forward. They do. But they won’t accomplish them by staying in the streets. They were never going to anyway. It was a cheap tactic with no tangible payoff. And I wouldn’t be surprised if their main accomplishment is setting back full democracy in HK another 20 years.
Still, that does depend on what happens this week when the bailiffs show up to start clearing them out. The smart move would be to help them clear the road, pack up and either recamp someplace where they’re out of the way of traffic, or (preferably) go back to class and rethink their strategy. If they fight back, they’re going to lose support from everyone except the radicals. And the radicals have even less of a chance to change anything.
In any case, the worst possible outcome for HK in terms of democratic reform is probably going to be universal suffrage with no civil nomination, but with the possibility for future reform later on, to include making the Nominating Committee more representative of all political parties.
Which, incidentally, is exactly what we were probably going to get even before the Umbrella Revolution started. Which is the strongest possible message the HKG could send the Umbrella movement right now – “You changed nothing. You made no difference. Go home.”
Developing …
Close yr umbrellas,
This is dF
[Background here]
It’s probably as well. After 50+ days, the protesters have accomplished more or less what I presumed they would – namely, bubkis.
Which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Neither side has been willing (or able) to compromise, and it’s clear now the only thing they ever wanted to accomplish with “dialogue" was to explain their position more clearly – as if the problem this whole time was both sides not fully understanding the other’s position. It’s sort of like that t-shirt slogan: “I’m not arguing with you, I’m just trying to explain why I’m right”.
And let’s admit: when yr tactics have shifted to pointless, dumb publicity stunts like trying to fly to Beijing to meet with China officials and explaining to THEM why yr right – and having the nerve to act surprised when HK Immigration doesn’t let you on the plane – yr pretty much out of ideas.
Whatever one thinks about universal suffrage, civic nomination or Boss Leung, the fact of the matter is that the Umbrella Revolution was doomed to fail the moment they started barricading the roads, and only really got the momentum they did because the HK Police went overboard with the tear gas on Day 1. The novelty has long since worn off, and the protesters have never been in a position to make the demands they’ve been making – worse, they’re the only ones who don’t know that.
That’s not to say the HK Govt hasn’t brought a lot of this grief on itself. It has. And none of is to say that pro-democracy activists don’t have other options to press their cause forward. They do. But they won’t accomplish them by staying in the streets. They were never going to anyway. It was a cheap tactic with no tangible payoff. And I wouldn’t be surprised if their main accomplishment is setting back full democracy in HK another 20 years.
Still, that does depend on what happens this week when the bailiffs show up to start clearing them out. The smart move would be to help them clear the road, pack up and either recamp someplace where they’re out of the way of traffic, or (preferably) go back to class and rethink their strategy. If they fight back, they’re going to lose support from everyone except the radicals. And the radicals have even less of a chance to change anything.
In any case, the worst possible outcome for HK in terms of democratic reform is probably going to be universal suffrage with no civil nomination, but with the possibility for future reform later on, to include making the Nominating Committee more representative of all political parties.
Which, incidentally, is exactly what we were probably going to get even before the Umbrella Revolution started. Which is the strongest possible message the HKG could send the Umbrella movement right now – “You changed nothing. You made no difference. Go home.”
Developing …
Close yr umbrellas,
This is dF
