![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
YOU BREXIT, YOU BOUGHT IT
Jun. 27th, 2016 12:41 amNot to harp on the Brexit, but I’m now being reminded why it’s usually a good idea to wait a few days before commenting on Big Stories like this. It takes awhile for everything to filter through and sink in – especially for scheduled stories that have an outcome you didn’t expect.
Anyway, here’s a few interesting updates to the previous post:
1. Evidently the “Leave” camp got a major assist from people who (1) had no idea what they were actually voting for, or what was at stake, and didn’t think to check until after they voted, and/or (2) thought it was a symbolic vote and never seriously believed that “Leave” would actually win.
But that’s what happens when you leave decisions on complex, nuanced issues to “ordinary decent people”.
In any case, it’s quite a spectacle seeing “Leave” voters now going on TV and saying, “Gee, maybe we were a bit hasty.”
2. Oddly, even Boris Johnson seems to be having a “Wait, we won?” moment. He hasn’t expressed actual regret, but his “victory” speech was a subdued “Well, look, there’s no hurry, I mean, we still like Europe, we just, you know, er …”
3. Between that and Nigel Farange backpedaling on campaign promises – and the fact that the referendum isn’t actually binding – I’m starting to wonder if maybe there’s a way out if this.
A petition for a second referendum – which would require Parliament to pass a rule saying that any Brexit referendum must achieve 75% voter turnout and a winning percentage of at least 60% – has already garnered 10x the signatures needed for Parliament to bring it up for discussion.
I have no idea if that would work. But as The Intercept has pointed out, the Brexit doesn’t actually start until the govt invokes Article 50 – and Johnson may actually have a chance to negotiate a deal with the EU to stay, but under different conditions. Indeed, Johnson only really supported Brexit partly to get rid of David Cameron but also to force the EU to renegotiate their membership deal. He could still do that.
The only sticking point is that it would require the political will to ignore a majority result (albeit a slim majority, and with a considerable amount of remorse on the winning side, though whether there’s enough to tip the scale the other way is anyone’s guess). It’s not clear if Johnson has that will. And it seems the Labour Party would rather ensure Britain’s post-EU business environment is as progressive as possible than try to hold a second referendum.
But it could happen. And given what happened to the pound’s exchange rate, it’s possible everyone is sufficiently spooked to reconsider.
EDITED TO ADD: See also this post from Charles Stross about the pending constitutional crisis that could arise from Scotland and Northern Ireland – both of which voted “Remain” by solid majorities – having the power to veto an attempted Brexit (and not just because Scotland is threatening independence again).
4. Then again, the damage has been done in terms of race relations. As I said before, not everyone who supported Brexit is a racist xenophobe, but the ones who are have been expressing themselves to local immigrants in more or less the way you’d expect. The UK has to live with this no matter what happens next. And that’s on Nigel Farange and Boris Johnson.
5. For people afraid that this is a sign that Donald Trump can leverage the same sentiments in the US to win the election, you can take heart in this article, which says that America’s racial voting demographics will make it much harder for Trump to win on angry white racist xenophobia alone. That doesn’t mean Trump can’t possibly win. I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. He just isn’t likely to do it by getting enough white people angry and non-white foreigners.
6. Speaking of Trump, it’s worth passing on this collection of amazing words used to describe him when he traveled to Scotland and congratulated them on the Brexit (despite the fact that Scotland actually voted “remain”).
DISCLAIMER: I don’t approve of name-calling – I’m linking to these mainly for their spirited creativity.
NOTE: A lot of them could arguably apply to Farange and Johnson.
Developing …
London’s burning,
This is dF
Anyway, here’s a few interesting updates to the previous post:
1. Evidently the “Leave” camp got a major assist from people who (1) had no idea what they were actually voting for, or what was at stake, and didn’t think to check until after they voted, and/or (2) thought it was a symbolic vote and never seriously believed that “Leave” would actually win.
But that’s what happens when you leave decisions on complex, nuanced issues to “ordinary decent people”.
In any case, it’s quite a spectacle seeing “Leave” voters now going on TV and saying, “Gee, maybe we were a bit hasty.”
2. Oddly, even Boris Johnson seems to be having a “Wait, we won?” moment. He hasn’t expressed actual regret, but his “victory” speech was a subdued “Well, look, there’s no hurry, I mean, we still like Europe, we just, you know, er …”
3. Between that and Nigel Farange backpedaling on campaign promises – and the fact that the referendum isn’t actually binding – I’m starting to wonder if maybe there’s a way out if this.
A petition for a second referendum – which would require Parliament to pass a rule saying that any Brexit referendum must achieve 75% voter turnout and a winning percentage of at least 60% – has already garnered 10x the signatures needed for Parliament to bring it up for discussion.
I have no idea if that would work. But as The Intercept has pointed out, the Brexit doesn’t actually start until the govt invokes Article 50 – and Johnson may actually have a chance to negotiate a deal with the EU to stay, but under different conditions. Indeed, Johnson only really supported Brexit partly to get rid of David Cameron but also to force the EU to renegotiate their membership deal. He could still do that.
The only sticking point is that it would require the political will to ignore a majority result (albeit a slim majority, and with a considerable amount of remorse on the winning side, though whether there’s enough to tip the scale the other way is anyone’s guess). It’s not clear if Johnson has that will. And it seems the Labour Party would rather ensure Britain’s post-EU business environment is as progressive as possible than try to hold a second referendum.
But it could happen. And given what happened to the pound’s exchange rate, it’s possible everyone is sufficiently spooked to reconsider.
EDITED TO ADD: See also this post from Charles Stross about the pending constitutional crisis that could arise from Scotland and Northern Ireland – both of which voted “Remain” by solid majorities – having the power to veto an attempted Brexit (and not just because Scotland is threatening independence again).
4. Then again, the damage has been done in terms of race relations. As I said before, not everyone who supported Brexit is a racist xenophobe, but the ones who are have been expressing themselves to local immigrants in more or less the way you’d expect. The UK has to live with this no matter what happens next. And that’s on Nigel Farange and Boris Johnson.
5. For people afraid that this is a sign that Donald Trump can leverage the same sentiments in the US to win the election, you can take heart in this article, which says that America’s racial voting demographics will make it much harder for Trump to win on angry white racist xenophobia alone. That doesn’t mean Trump can’t possibly win. I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. He just isn’t likely to do it by getting enough white people angry and non-white foreigners.
6. Speaking of Trump, it’s worth passing on this collection of amazing words used to describe him when he traveled to Scotland and congratulated them on the Brexit (despite the fact that Scotland actually voted “remain”).
DISCLAIMER: I don’t approve of name-calling – I’m linking to these mainly for their spirited creativity.
NOTE: A lot of them could arguably apply to Farange and Johnson.
Developing …
London’s burning,
This is dF
