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1 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE STREETS, Y'ALL
Jun. 12th, 2019 12:50 amSome of you may have seen a news story of a million people protesting on the streets of Hong Kong over a proposed extradition bill.
Here's what that looked like (you'll need to go full-screen to get the full effect – trust me, it's worth it).
There are good summaries here and here, but the gist of it is:
Opponents don’t really believe her. And there’s no reason they should.
1. For a start, in the past 22 years since the handover, numerous Beijing officials have made it perfectly clear – repeatedly – that when it comes to how the HK govt runs its affairs (especially when it comes to democratic election processes) it is Beijing who has the final say precisely because they own us – we’re part of China, our autonomy is not absolute, and don’t ever forget that.
2. Meanwhile, the HK govt has in the past blocked certain Chinese dissidents from entering the city, and recently refused to renew the visa of a foreign journalist – and denied him entry back into HK – because he moderated an event where the main speaker was a pro-independence activist (whose political party has been banned). The govt has always claimed these actions were not due to pressure from Beijing – but not a lot of people believe that.
3. Also, while theoretically you would have to be in China when your alleged crime took place, in reality China has been known to finesse that particular detail.
So when CE Lam says, “Don’t worry, we have the power to turn down any request that looks politically motivated,” it’s not particularly reassuring. Even if she’s sincere, it’s hard to imagine Beijing talking no for an answer, or CE Lam standing up to them if they pressure her to change her mind.
4. It’s even less reassuring when remembering that the last time HK had a protest anywhere near this size (2003), it was over a proposed National Security bill that would, among other things, “prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People's Government” – with Beijing of course having the final say on what counted as any of those things.
After the protest the bill was shelved, but Article 23 of the Basic Law (our mini-constitution) requires us to pass one sooner or later. And after the Occupy stunt of 2014 and the subsequent rise of the tiny pro-independence faction, some pro-Beijing officials have suggested we put that back on the table soon. You can guess who might be the first people or groups charged under that law.
So you can see why people aren’t feeling very reassured by CE Lam’s claims that It Can’t Happen Here and to just trust her that everything will be fine. Ultimately, it’s not so much that people don’t trust the bill – they don’t trust Beijing to adhere to the law’s safeguards or respect HK’s decisions on politically motivated cases. And they don’t trust CE Lam because (like all CEs) she was vetted and elected by 1200 electors approved by Beijing.
So … what happens now?
Well, for a start, CE Lam isn’t backing down. The extradition bill is due for a second and third reading tomorrow, and LegCo has been instructed to have a final vote by Thursday next week.
Meanwhile, another protest is being planned for tomorrow. Over 100 businesses – including some of the major banks in town – have publicly announced they will either close or adopt flexi-hours so that their employees can attend the protest. That right there should tell you how serious the opposition to this bill is.
In fact, pretty much no one apart from CE Lam, the pro-establishment parties and Beijing itself is in favour of the bill. Even Taiwan has said they don’t want HK to pass the bill just so they can prosecute the murder suspect – they would much rather have a one-off arrangement.
So, the big questions are:
1. Why is CE Lam hellbent on pushing this bill when she knows how immensely unpopular it is?
2. Has she considered what the reaction of the public and the business sector is going to be if it does pass?
3. Does she have a contingency plan to deal with that?
We’ll find out. But it’s hard to believe she doesn’t know how divisive this bill is, and that passing it is going to make things worse. Granted, it’s not like her re-election is at stake. But does she really want to risk serious social upheaval by ignoring all those concerns or pretending they don’t matter simply because she thinks she’s right? Does she really think passing this bill is so important that it's worth ripping the city apart?
The only hope now is that LegCo votes against the bill – which isn’t likely since the pro-Beijing camp outnumbers the opposition by a pretty big margin. Maybe they’ll feel enough voter pressure to rethink their position. Maybe they won’t.
All I’m really sure of is that between now and the final vote, we’re in for an ugly week.
Into the aggro,
This is dF
Here's what that looked like (you'll need to go full-screen to get the full effect – trust me, it's worth it).
There are good summaries here and here, but the gist of it is:
- A Hong Kong resident is currently accused of murdering his girlfriend whilst in Taiwan, then fleeing back to HK to avoid prosecution.
- Hong Kong currently has no extradition arrangement with Taiwan, and is proposing to amend its extradition law to fix that.
- But to do that, it can’t just set up an extradition agreement with Taiwan – it has to include all of China because technically, HK is part of China, which also officially considers Taiwan to be part of China.
- This would mean HK residents could be extradited to China.
- At least 1.03 million HK citizens are concerned about that because we all know that (1) features of China’s judicial system include torture, forced confessions, and trumped up evidence, and (2) under China’s rule of law, making jokes about Xi Jinping counts as trying to overthrow the government.
Opponents don’t really believe her. And there’s no reason they should.
1. For a start, in the past 22 years since the handover, numerous Beijing officials have made it perfectly clear – repeatedly – that when it comes to how the HK govt runs its affairs (especially when it comes to democratic election processes) it is Beijing who has the final say precisely because they own us – we’re part of China, our autonomy is not absolute, and don’t ever forget that.
2. Meanwhile, the HK govt has in the past blocked certain Chinese dissidents from entering the city, and recently refused to renew the visa of a foreign journalist – and denied him entry back into HK – because he moderated an event where the main speaker was a pro-independence activist (whose political party has been banned). The govt has always claimed these actions were not due to pressure from Beijing – but not a lot of people believe that.
3. Also, while theoretically you would have to be in China when your alleged crime took place, in reality China has been known to finesse that particular detail.
So when CE Lam says, “Don’t worry, we have the power to turn down any request that looks politically motivated,” it’s not particularly reassuring. Even if she’s sincere, it’s hard to imagine Beijing talking no for an answer, or CE Lam standing up to them if they pressure her to change her mind.
4. It’s even less reassuring when remembering that the last time HK had a protest anywhere near this size (2003), it was over a proposed National Security bill that would, among other things, “prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People's Government” – with Beijing of course having the final say on what counted as any of those things.
After the protest the bill was shelved, but Article 23 of the Basic Law (our mini-constitution) requires us to pass one sooner or later. And after the Occupy stunt of 2014 and the subsequent rise of the tiny pro-independence faction, some pro-Beijing officials have suggested we put that back on the table soon. You can guess who might be the first people or groups charged under that law.
So you can see why people aren’t feeling very reassured by CE Lam’s claims that It Can’t Happen Here and to just trust her that everything will be fine. Ultimately, it’s not so much that people don’t trust the bill – they don’t trust Beijing to adhere to the law’s safeguards or respect HK’s decisions on politically motivated cases. And they don’t trust CE Lam because (like all CEs) she was vetted and elected by 1200 electors approved by Beijing.
So … what happens now?
Well, for a start, CE Lam isn’t backing down. The extradition bill is due for a second and third reading tomorrow, and LegCo has been instructed to have a final vote by Thursday next week.
Meanwhile, another protest is being planned for tomorrow. Over 100 businesses – including some of the major banks in town – have publicly announced they will either close or adopt flexi-hours so that their employees can attend the protest. That right there should tell you how serious the opposition to this bill is.
In fact, pretty much no one apart from CE Lam, the pro-establishment parties and Beijing itself is in favour of the bill. Even Taiwan has said they don’t want HK to pass the bill just so they can prosecute the murder suspect – they would much rather have a one-off arrangement.
So, the big questions are:
1. Why is CE Lam hellbent on pushing this bill when she knows how immensely unpopular it is?
2. Has she considered what the reaction of the public and the business sector is going to be if it does pass?
3. Does she have a contingency plan to deal with that?
We’ll find out. But it’s hard to believe she doesn’t know how divisive this bill is, and that passing it is going to make things worse. Granted, it’s not like her re-election is at stake. But does she really want to risk serious social upheaval by ignoring all those concerns or pretending they don’t matter simply because she thinks she’s right? Does she really think passing this bill is so important that it's worth ripping the city apart?
The only hope now is that LegCo votes against the bill – which isn’t likely since the pro-Beijing camp outnumbers the opposition by a pretty big margin. Maybe they’ll feel enough voter pressure to rethink their position. Maybe they won’t.
All I’m really sure of is that between now and the final vote, we’re in for an ugly week.
Into the aggro,
This is dF
