WHOEVER WINS, WE ALL LOSE
Mar. 20th, 2012 10:46 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrogIt’s getting close to election time, and we’re in for possibly the messiest election yet, with the Chosen One in serious trouble and the top challenger mired in corruption allegations. Whoever wins, no one’s going to be happy with the results.
I’m talking, of course, about Hong Kong’s race for the next Chief Executive (which is what we call our President, or Governor, or Mayor, or whatever the equivalent is for a city that resides within a country but requires a separate visa to enter).
Which means I shall bore you with local politics now. If this doesn’t interest you, perhaps my Sexy Tumblr Party site is more to yr liking.
As you may or may not know, here in HK we don’t elect CEs by pop vote. Instead, those of us who qualify (around 237,000 or so) elect a committee of 1,200 people to vote for CE. If that sounds small, note that it used to be just 400 people in 1997.
This has been Beijing's idea of giving us more democracy. Progress!
Or not, as the Election Committee is still stacked with pro-Beijing electors, which means the winner will typically be the one Beijing is most comfortable with. Which is, of course, the general idea.
Indeed, previous elections have been pretty predictable. Our first CE, Tung Chee-hwa, had no serious opposition (apart from the general public eventually getting sick of him). Neither did his successor, Donald Tsang, who essentially inherited the job by (1) being Tung’s second in command when he resigned, and (2) being the only person in Tung’s admin who seemed to know what he was doing. Now that he’s finishing up his second term, the general wisdom was that HIS No. 2 man, Henry Tang, would be next in line.
He still might be. However, the PR people at Yahoo! Hong Kong were nice enough to cash in on the topic send me a list of the hottest election-related results on Search Buzz in the last few months. The top four:
Spoiled for choice,
This is dF
I’m talking, of course, about Hong Kong’s race for the next Chief Executive (which is what we call our President, or Governor, or Mayor, or whatever the equivalent is for a city that resides within a country but requires a separate visa to enter).
Which means I shall bore you with local politics now. If this doesn’t interest you, perhaps my Sexy Tumblr Party site is more to yr liking.
As you may or may not know, here in HK we don’t elect CEs by pop vote. Instead, those of us who qualify (around 237,000 or so) elect a committee of 1,200 people to vote for CE. If that sounds small, note that it used to be just 400 people in 1997.
This has been Beijing's idea of giving us more democracy. Progress!
Or not, as the Election Committee is still stacked with pro-Beijing electors, which means the winner will typically be the one Beijing is most comfortable with. Which is, of course, the general idea.
Indeed, previous elections have been pretty predictable. Our first CE, Tung Chee-hwa, had no serious opposition (apart from the general public eventually getting sick of him). Neither did his successor, Donald Tsang, who essentially inherited the job by (1) being Tung’s second in command when he resigned, and (2) being the only person in Tung’s admin who seemed to know what he was doing. Now that he’s finishing up his second term, the general wisdom was that HIS No. 2 man, Henry Tang, would be next in line.
He still might be. However, the PR people at Yahoo! Hong Kong were nice enough to cash in on the topic send me a list of the hottest election-related results on Search Buzz in the last few months. The top four:
1. Henry Tang’s extra-marital affairs
2. Henry Tang’s illegitimate child
3. Altered photos and movie posters mocking Henry Tang
4. Henry Tang’s illegal basement
For context, Tang’s biggest problem isn't so much the fact that he cheated on his wife to the point of fathering a child out of wedlock, or had a basement installed in his house that went against local building regulations (at a time when the govt has been cracking down on people for breaking building regs with their own illegal add-ons, only to discover to its embarrassment that a lot of legislators do it too), so much as the fact that his response has invariably been to smile, deny everything, then once confronted with evidence, say that he never said he denied it, he just misunderstood the question, or he doesn’t comment on private matters. Either that or he just talks about all he wants to do is serve the greater good of Hong Kong and why is everyone focusing on petty matters?
Sure, all politicians do that. But Tang has a way of doing it in which he not only either lies to yr face or avoids yr question, but also treats the press and the public like they’re complete idiots. It’s probably the way he smiles as he talks.
The only thing working in his favor is that pro-Beijing electors who backed him don’t seem keen on changing their minds, if only because the property tycoons that own HK and also sit on the election committee don’t like the populist tone of voice of his chief challenger, Leung Chun-ying.
That said, Leung has his own share of scandals to explain, mostly involving conflict of interest, alleged triad connections, and his supposed suggestion back in 2003 that the govt should handle street protests by siccing the riot police on them. On the other hand, the difference is that Leung has generally handled his problems far better, at least politically.
So basically HK’s choice of leadership for the next five years comes down to the guy who’s better at deflecting political scandals. Or possibly Albert Ho, the leader of the Democratic Party (i.e. the party Beijing loves to hate) who’s also in the race mainly to prove he can’t win. He’s probably right.
Anyway, it’s an interesting development in HK’s fledgling limited democracy. No CE has ever really had what politicians like to call a “public mandate”, but at the same time, public opinion does matter. Even Wen Jiabao says as much (if not in so many words). Tang’s approval ratings are way down, and as the Establishment Candidate, he could still win, but he’ll be an unpopular CE from Day 1. And considering Beijing has yet to officially back anyone this late in the game, Tang’s supporters may decide it’s better to abandon him for Leung than to find out the hard way.
Unless, of course, nobody wins.
We’ll find out on March 25.
2. Henry Tang’s illegitimate child
3. Altered photos and movie posters mocking Henry Tang
4. Henry Tang’s illegal basement
For context, Tang’s biggest problem isn't so much the fact that he cheated on his wife to the point of fathering a child out of wedlock, or had a basement installed in his house that went against local building regulations (at a time when the govt has been cracking down on people for breaking building regs with their own illegal add-ons, only to discover to its embarrassment that a lot of legislators do it too), so much as the fact that his response has invariably been to smile, deny everything, then once confronted with evidence, say that he never said he denied it, he just misunderstood the question, or he doesn’t comment on private matters. Either that or he just talks about all he wants to do is serve the greater good of Hong Kong and why is everyone focusing on petty matters?
Sure, all politicians do that. But Tang has a way of doing it in which he not only either lies to yr face or avoids yr question, but also treats the press and the public like they’re complete idiots. It’s probably the way he smiles as he talks.
The only thing working in his favor is that pro-Beijing electors who backed him don’t seem keen on changing their minds, if only because the property tycoons that own HK and also sit on the election committee don’t like the populist tone of voice of his chief challenger, Leung Chun-ying.
That said, Leung has his own share of scandals to explain, mostly involving conflict of interest, alleged triad connections, and his supposed suggestion back in 2003 that the govt should handle street protests by siccing the riot police on them. On the other hand, the difference is that Leung has generally handled his problems far better, at least politically.
So basically HK’s choice of leadership for the next five years comes down to the guy who’s better at deflecting political scandals. Or possibly Albert Ho, the leader of the Democratic Party (i.e. the party Beijing loves to hate) who’s also in the race mainly to prove he can’t win. He’s probably right.
Anyway, it’s an interesting development in HK’s fledgling limited democracy. No CE has ever really had what politicians like to call a “public mandate”, but at the same time, public opinion does matter. Even Wen Jiabao says as much (if not in so many words). Tang’s approval ratings are way down, and as the Establishment Candidate, he could still win, but he’ll be an unpopular CE from Day 1. And considering Beijing has yet to officially back anyone this late in the game, Tang’s supporters may decide it’s better to abandon him for Leung than to find out the hard way.
Unless, of course, nobody wins.
We’ll find out on March 25.
Spoiled for choice,
This is dF
