HERE’S YR FUTURE (PROBABLY)
Nov. 5th, 2012 12:07 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrogIt’s getting to be about that time.
And it’s traditional for political junkies to announce two items of sociopolitical importance: who they want to win the US presidential election and who they think will win.
I will type them for you now.
1. Who do I want to win?
Well, that should be obvious. Here’s why.
In 2008, I endorsed Obama for primarily superficial reasons: unlike McCain, he was young, elitist and computer-literate. And an Obama victory would make Sean Hannity’s head explode. (Okay, there was also the fact that the GOP had blown it so badly with the Bush Posse’s leadership that giving them another four years was a ludicrous proposition.)
Four years of Presidente Obama later, most of the same applies, though perhaps less so (except for the part about making Hannity’s head explode – I’m no Nate Silver, but I think the statistical likelihood of a complete meltdown at Fox News over a second Obama term is as close to 100% as makes no odds, if only because their ratings would go through the roof).
The difference this time, of course, is that we know what an Obama presidency looks like. And while it hasn’t been stellar, Obama has done okay given the mess he was left to fix, and who he’s had to work with to fix it. As I have mentioned before, some aspects of Term 1 displease me greatly. That said, those aspects will not improve under a Romney presidency.
And that for me is the real benchmark in this election: for all of Obama’s faults and missteps, would Romney make a better president than Obama?
I’ve seen no convincing evidence that he would. When I ask for some, I usually get handed a lot of ideological platitudes decoupled from reality, or wonky explanations about his economic plan that even The Economist says is unworkable, or alternate-universe scenarios in which if Romney was president instead of Obama, the unemployment rate would be 4%, Iran would be cowed into submission and Chris Stevens would still be alive.
Subsequently, I also get lectures about how 110% disastrous the Obama admin has been and how he is the Worst President Ever, which is not only disingenuous, but also a terrible persuasion strategy – telling me how godawful you think Obama has been as POTUS is not the same thing as telling me why Mitt Romney would be a better one.
Also, if yr argument for voting Romney is that if Obama wins, the GOP will wreck the economy (again), then all yr pretty much telling me is the GOP is f***ing nuts.
Complicating things is the point that, in all honesty – and this is a cliché, I know, but bear with me – I have no idea which Mitt Romney we would get if he wins.
I do think Mitt is a mod at heart (at least compared to everyone else he was running against who polled in the double digits), but he’s a mod who has spent a lot of time pandering to the batshit wing of the GOP for political gain.
You can say (as people have) he had to do that out of political necessity to keep actual crackpots from getting the nomination. The thing is this: the neo-conservatives and Tea Party dingbats aren’t going to go anywhere if he wins, and he won’t be able to ignore them if he wants a second term (which he will).
That’s an issue for me because a good chunk of what made Bush Jr’s presidency such a disaster wasn’t so much Bush himself as the neo-conservative kooks he surrounded himself with telling him what buttons to push. Romney may not be as paranoid as John Bolton, but he does take advice from the guy, and anyone who even bothers to take Bolton’s phone calls – especially after the debacle of the Bush Posse – arguably needs his head examined.
To be sure, I don’t think a Romney victory will lead to the worst-case scenarios that many liberals are predicting. But I don’t see much good coming from it either. I’d just as soon give Obama another four years to prove that Term 1 will pay off in some way.
Which brings us to the next question:
2. Who do I think will win?
Needless to say, this is the toughest race to call since 2000, and the results will undoubtedly be contentious. Even the polls are contentious – look at all the conservative dithering over Nate Silver’s statistical analysis of them, or look at Salvatore Babones at Truthout claiming that thepolls showing Romney gaining ground must be bullshit because it’s inconceivable to him that half the country wants to vote for a multimillionaire private equity executive for president. (Also, Republicans are more likely to have telephones than Democrats, apparently.)
Anyway, assuming the polls are reasonably accurate, and despite Nate Silver’s insistence that the election isn’t the toss-up it appears to be(statistically speaking), I do think there’s a chance Romney could pull this off (albeit just barely).
Indeed, there are all kinds of scenarios being tossed around. Ohio could be the next Florida! A Romney-Biden presidency! Tagg Romney!
Still, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Obama is going to win this.
I don’t have much to back that up on, apart from electoral math. But there’s a few things I can point to – such as the fact that Obama’s job approval rating has gone up overall this year (he’s around 50% now, compared to 43% in December 2011, which means he's just a little higher than where Bush was the eve of the 2004 election). Also, he’s likely getting a last-minute bounce from Hurricane Sandy and some unexpected love from Chris Christie.
Also, there’sbedsitter23 ’s scientific analysis to consider here.
So yeah – I’m calling it for Obama. I’ve said before it’s his race to lose. He actually came close to doing that, but I think he’s still got just enough momentum to squeak by.
And you know what that means.
OBAMAPOCALYPSE!
Get ready to rumble,
This is dF
And it’s traditional for political junkies to announce two items of sociopolitical importance: who they want to win the US presidential election and who they think will win.
I will type them for you now.
1. Who do I want to win?
Well, that should be obvious. Here’s why.
In 2008, I endorsed Obama for primarily superficial reasons: unlike McCain, he was young, elitist and computer-literate. And an Obama victory would make Sean Hannity’s head explode. (Okay, there was also the fact that the GOP had blown it so badly with the Bush Posse’s leadership that giving them another four years was a ludicrous proposition.)
Four years of Presidente Obama later, most of the same applies, though perhaps less so (except for the part about making Hannity’s head explode – I’m no Nate Silver, but I think the statistical likelihood of a complete meltdown at Fox News over a second Obama term is as close to 100% as makes no odds, if only because their ratings would go through the roof).
The difference this time, of course, is that we know what an Obama presidency looks like. And while it hasn’t been stellar, Obama has done okay given the mess he was left to fix, and who he’s had to work with to fix it. As I have mentioned before, some aspects of Term 1 displease me greatly. That said, those aspects will not improve under a Romney presidency.
And that for me is the real benchmark in this election: for all of Obama’s faults and missteps, would Romney make a better president than Obama?
I’ve seen no convincing evidence that he would. When I ask for some, I usually get handed a lot of ideological platitudes decoupled from reality, or wonky explanations about his economic plan that even The Economist says is unworkable, or alternate-universe scenarios in which if Romney was president instead of Obama, the unemployment rate would be 4%, Iran would be cowed into submission and Chris Stevens would still be alive.
Subsequently, I also get lectures about how 110% disastrous the Obama admin has been and how he is the Worst President Ever, which is not only disingenuous, but also a terrible persuasion strategy – telling me how godawful you think Obama has been as POTUS is not the same thing as telling me why Mitt Romney would be a better one.
Also, if yr argument for voting Romney is that if Obama wins, the GOP will wreck the economy (again), then all yr pretty much telling me is the GOP is f***ing nuts.
Complicating things is the point that, in all honesty – and this is a cliché, I know, but bear with me – I have no idea which Mitt Romney we would get if he wins.
I do think Mitt is a mod at heart (at least compared to everyone else he was running against who polled in the double digits), but he’s a mod who has spent a lot of time pandering to the batshit wing of the GOP for political gain.
You can say (as people have) he had to do that out of political necessity to keep actual crackpots from getting the nomination. The thing is this: the neo-conservatives and Tea Party dingbats aren’t going to go anywhere if he wins, and he won’t be able to ignore them if he wants a second term (which he will).
That’s an issue for me because a good chunk of what made Bush Jr’s presidency such a disaster wasn’t so much Bush himself as the neo-conservative kooks he surrounded himself with telling him what buttons to push. Romney may not be as paranoid as John Bolton, but he does take advice from the guy, and anyone who even bothers to take Bolton’s phone calls – especially after the debacle of the Bush Posse – arguably needs his head examined.
To be sure, I don’t think a Romney victory will lead to the worst-case scenarios that many liberals are predicting. But I don’t see much good coming from it either. I’d just as soon give Obama another four years to prove that Term 1 will pay off in some way.
Which brings us to the next question:
2. Who do I think will win?
Needless to say, this is the toughest race to call since 2000, and the results will undoubtedly be contentious. Even the polls are contentious – look at all the conservative dithering over Nate Silver’s statistical analysis of them, or look at Salvatore Babones at Truthout claiming that thepolls showing Romney gaining ground must be bullshit because it’s inconceivable to him that half the country wants to vote for a multimillionaire private equity executive for president. (Also, Republicans are more likely to have telephones than Democrats, apparently.)
Anyway, assuming the polls are reasonably accurate, and despite Nate Silver’s insistence that the election isn’t the toss-up it appears to be(statistically speaking), I do think there’s a chance Romney could pull this off (albeit just barely).
Indeed, there are all kinds of scenarios being tossed around. Ohio could be the next Florida! A Romney-Biden presidency! Tagg Romney!
Still, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Obama is going to win this.
I don’t have much to back that up on, apart from electoral math. But there’s a few things I can point to – such as the fact that Obama’s job approval rating has gone up overall this year (he’s around 50% now, compared to 43% in December 2011, which means he's just a little higher than where Bush was the eve of the 2004 election). Also, he’s likely getting a last-minute bounce from Hurricane Sandy and some unexpected love from Chris Christie.
Also, there’s
bedsitter23 ’s scientific analysis to consider here. So yeah – I’m calling it for Obama. I’ve said before it’s his race to lose. He actually came close to doing that, but I think he’s still got just enough momentum to squeak by.
And you know what that means.
OBAMAPOCALYPSE!
Get ready to rumble,
This is dF
