ALL YOU FASCISTS BOUND TO LOSE (OR NOT)
Jul. 4th, 2014 11:23 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrog[Emergency concurring opinion handed down by Chief Justice Bringer Lucky Bensonhurst]
Re: Hobby Lobby –
If you watch cable TV news or have a FaceTwit account, you already know that there is fierce and savage debate over what is, for many Americans, the most important and crucial aspect of the SCOTUS Hobby Lobby decision – one I have been asked about repeatedly over the past week, and indeed the only aspect that matters for most people:
How will it impact the 2014 mid-terms?
A fair question, for I have been hearing a lot of talk about the political consequences of the Hobby Lobby ruling, which in legal terms found that corporations can’t be forced to pay for contraceptives for female employees under their healthcare plans if it violates the religious beliefs of the owners, but in layman’s terms (and also Real Life) found that the rights of religious business owners are more important than the rights of their female employees (religious or otherwise).
So naturally, the interwub is giddy with speculation about how the Democrats are going to exploit the hell out of all the fear and loathing the decision has generated, and boy are you going to see the GOP get its ass kicked in the mid-terms.
Yes. Well. Not really, no.
To be sure, if ever the Demos needed something to rally the base during a mid-term election year, this could well be it. You can bet that women who already think the GOP is waging a War On Women™ are not going to be wooed by the GOP’s outreach program to get more babes onside (not that it was working that well even before the Hobby Lobby case).
But that’s not likely to translate into a major Democrat-led upset – not according to math.
According to WaPo’s forecasting models, the Demos have a 1% chance of taking back the House this year. More to the point, the GOP has a better chance of gaining up to five seats.
Meanwhile, according to Nate Silver, the GOP also has a decent shot at taking back the Senate (albeit via a very slim majority).
Sorry.
Granted, those forecasts were posted before the Hobby Lobby ruling. But I wouldn’t expect it to change much, at least for the House – the Senate race is tight enough that the GOP could fail to gain enough seats to take over. Either way, Congressional races are dependent on a number of factors, most of which have nothing to do a single given political issue. So I’d be surprised if the Hobby Lobby case results in Republicans getting their ass handed to them in November.
Unless all those doomsday scenarios about America’s CEOs suddenly finding Jesus to get out of Obamacare and kick out the gays come true. Or unless the GOP leadership starts taking advice from Laura Ingraham on immigration.
– L. Bensonhurst
Re: Hobby Lobby –
If you watch cable TV news or have a FaceTwit account, you already know that there is fierce and savage debate over what is, for many Americans, the most important and crucial aspect of the SCOTUS Hobby Lobby decision – one I have been asked about repeatedly over the past week, and indeed the only aspect that matters for most people:
How will it impact the 2014 mid-terms?
A fair question, for I have been hearing a lot of talk about the political consequences of the Hobby Lobby ruling, which in legal terms found that corporations can’t be forced to pay for contraceptives for female employees under their healthcare plans if it violates the religious beliefs of the owners, but in layman’s terms (and also Real Life) found that the rights of religious business owners are more important than the rights of their female employees (religious or otherwise).
So naturally, the interwub is giddy with speculation about how the Democrats are going to exploit the hell out of all the fear and loathing the decision has generated, and boy are you going to see the GOP get its ass kicked in the mid-terms.
Yes. Well. Not really, no.
To be sure, if ever the Demos needed something to rally the base during a mid-term election year, this could well be it. You can bet that women who already think the GOP is waging a War On Women™ are not going to be wooed by the GOP’s outreach program to get more babes onside (not that it was working that well even before the Hobby Lobby case).
But that’s not likely to translate into a major Democrat-led upset – not according to math.
According to WaPo’s forecasting models, the Demos have a 1% chance of taking back the House this year. More to the point, the GOP has a better chance of gaining up to five seats.
Meanwhile, according to Nate Silver, the GOP also has a decent shot at taking back the Senate (albeit via a very slim majority).
Sorry.
Granted, those forecasts were posted before the Hobby Lobby ruling. But I wouldn’t expect it to change much, at least for the House – the Senate race is tight enough that the GOP could fail to gain enough seats to take over. Either way, Congressional races are dependent on a number of factors, most of which have nothing to do a single given political issue. So I’d be surprised if the Hobby Lobby case results in Republicans getting their ass handed to them in November.
Unless all those doomsday scenarios about America’s CEOs suddenly finding Jesus to get out of Obamacare and kick out the gays come true. Or unless the GOP leadership starts taking advice from Laura Ingraham on immigration.
– L. Bensonhurst
