THE UMBRELLA REVOLUTION STARTS NOW
Sep. 29th, 2014 11:29 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrogThere is trouble in Hong Kong.
Which you probably know about by now.
If you don’t, you can read a summary of events here. I’d write them up for you, but I’m pressed for time. (I've already covered the background here.)
The short version is this:
Occupy Central is on, and the HK Police tried to bust it up with tear gas. Which is noteworthy because the HK Police generally don’t do that to protesters, ever, even when they’re being idiots and blocking traffic.
The story is developing, of course, but the impression I get is that the HK Govt – which has had at least a year to come up with a contingency plan for this – evidently decided their strategy would be to bust up OC with Shock & Awe™ and scare everyone back home before OC had a chance to get a foothold and inconvenience the financial sector.
That plan has backfired in spectacular fashion. Not only has it encouraged even more people to show up in support of the protesters – because evidently using tear gas and batons on people who generally aren’t kicking in shop windows or flipping over cars or being an actual danger is a very unpopular thing to do here – it’s also summoned the attention of The Entire World thanks to this thing called Social Media.
Even protesters in Ferguson are taking time out from their own protests to send shoutouts to us.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. Earlier, I predicted that should Occupy Central go ahead, it would be a futile exercise because they want two things they will never ever get: (1) Chief Executive CY Leung’s resignation and (2) full-on democracy where we get to actually choose our own candidates instead of Beijing picking them out for us. Beijing won’t stand for either.
On the other hand, the wild card now seems to be the HK Police drastically overplaying their hand on a demonstrably non-violent crowd, and the subsequent attention it’s attracted. If this lasts long enough, they might actually force Boss Leung to the negotiating table – something that never would have happened otherwise.
Or not. No one really knows right now. It depends how the next couple of days go, and whether the police deploy any more tear gas, or break out the rubber bullets. They’d be stupid to do so now. For a start, the crowds tonight are much, much bigger than they were last night. And for another, as I said, the world is watching (to coin a phrase). People are already comparing it to Tiananmen Square – it’s not a very good comparison, but I don’t think anyone on the HK Govt wants it to start bearing a closer resemblance, especially with all the international attention.
That said, I can't see the govt backing down from this either, if only because Beijing will be very displeased.
It’s always possible the protesters will blow it by getting impatient and resorting to violence. If they do, they’ll blow their best chance. They’ve got tons of public support and momentum right now. At this point, it’s their game to lose.
Developing …
BONUS TRACK: It’s called the “Umbrella Revolution” because protesters have been carrying them to protect themselves against pepper spray.
Out on the street,
This is dF
Which you probably know about by now.
If you don’t, you can read a summary of events here. I’d write them up for you, but I’m pressed for time. (I've already covered the background here.)
The short version is this:
Occupy Central is on, and the HK Police tried to bust it up with tear gas. Which is noteworthy because the HK Police generally don’t do that to protesters, ever, even when they’re being idiots and blocking traffic.
The story is developing, of course, but the impression I get is that the HK Govt – which has had at least a year to come up with a contingency plan for this – evidently decided their strategy would be to bust up OC with Shock & Awe™ and scare everyone back home before OC had a chance to get a foothold and inconvenience the financial sector.
That plan has backfired in spectacular fashion. Not only has it encouraged even more people to show up in support of the protesters – because evidently using tear gas and batons on people who generally aren’t kicking in shop windows or flipping over cars or being an actual danger is a very unpopular thing to do here – it’s also summoned the attention of The Entire World thanks to this thing called Social Media.
Even protesters in Ferguson are taking time out from their own protests to send shoutouts to us.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. Earlier, I predicted that should Occupy Central go ahead, it would be a futile exercise because they want two things they will never ever get: (1) Chief Executive CY Leung’s resignation and (2) full-on democracy where we get to actually choose our own candidates instead of Beijing picking them out for us. Beijing won’t stand for either.
On the other hand, the wild card now seems to be the HK Police drastically overplaying their hand on a demonstrably non-violent crowd, and the subsequent attention it’s attracted. If this lasts long enough, they might actually force Boss Leung to the negotiating table – something that never would have happened otherwise.
Or not. No one really knows right now. It depends how the next couple of days go, and whether the police deploy any more tear gas, or break out the rubber bullets. They’d be stupid to do so now. For a start, the crowds tonight are much, much bigger than they were last night. And for another, as I said, the world is watching (to coin a phrase). People are already comparing it to Tiananmen Square – it’s not a very good comparison, but I don’t think anyone on the HK Govt wants it to start bearing a closer resemblance, especially with all the international attention.
That said, I can't see the govt backing down from this either, if only because Beijing will be very displeased.
It’s always possible the protesters will blow it by getting impatient and resorting to violence. If they do, they’ll blow their best chance. They’ve got tons of public support and momentum right now. At this point, it’s their game to lose.
Developing …
BONUS TRACK: It’s called the “Umbrella Revolution” because protesters have been carrying them to protect themselves against pepper spray.
Out on the street,
This is dF
