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defrogRe: My previous post predicting that HKSAR Establishment Day would be uglier this year:
Never mind.
Turnout for the protests this year was around 48,000 – which is not only the lowest it’s been since 2008, but around 450,000 short of last year’s turnout.
That’s a big drop.
There’s plenty of speculation as to why the numbers were so low, but the two main reasons being given the most credence are: (1) after the Occupy protest last year, lots of people are just burned out with protests, and (2) there was no central theme to come out and support. July 1 protests tend to attract just about every group with a particular grievance or issue to promote, but there’s usually one core message, and traditionally it’s been related to universal suffrage. But the political reform package is done and dead and it’s not going to be revisited until at least 2017 (if ever), and the pro-demos have no clear strategy as to what their next move will be, so why spend the day in the baking sun beating a dead horse?
Of course, another way of looking at it is this: all of the pro-democracy protests held over the last couple of years accomplished pretty much nothing in the end. The govt didn’t listen and refused to compromise even a little, so what’s the point in screaming at a brick wall?
The die-hards who did turn up rolled out the usual “CY Leung step down” demands, and tried a new tack on the democracy debate – “If yr excuse is that the Basic Law doesn’t allow civil nominations, then let’s change the Basic Law!” Which is technically possible, but seeing as how that requires the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) agreeing with any proposed changes in the Basic Law, I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Interestingly, one theme that didn’t generate a lot of support was HK independence from China. The localist movement brought that one into the mix, and the march organizers were quick to point out that they don’t support that particular meme. They’re still very much about “one country, two systems” and aren’t interested in creating a separate country.
The localists probably failed to notice the irony that “one country, two systems” enabled them to openly demand independence in the first place. If they tried that anywhere else in China, they’d all be in a basement jail getting whipped with rubber hoses and we wouldn’t know about it because none of the TV stations covering the protests would be allowed to air footage of them – or if they did, the newscasters would be denouncing them as terrorists (and the newscasts would be used as "evidence" in their trial).
Anyway, no fights broke out, even with pro-Beijing groups holding counter-protests along the route. So all in all, I was wrong about the ugliness. And I’m happy to be wrong about such things.
Still, the organizers are right about one thing – the big drop in attendance isn't a vote of confidence for the HK Govt or an admission that they were right all along. On the other hand, here’s hoping the pro-demo groups listen to some of the reasons people have given for staying away – they perceive the pan-demos as an anti-everything group who resort to extreme cheap theatrics that don’t actually accomplish anything.
Fair call, at least for the more radical groups. If the pan-demos want to achieve anything in the next few years – and get the public behind them – they need a change of tactics. We have empirical evidence that occupying the streets and throwing fruit in LegCo won’t work. It’s time to try something else.
Staying home,
This is dF
Never mind.
Turnout for the protests this year was around 48,000 – which is not only the lowest it’s been since 2008, but around 450,000 short of last year’s turnout.
That’s a big drop.
There’s plenty of speculation as to why the numbers were so low, but the two main reasons being given the most credence are: (1) after the Occupy protest last year, lots of people are just burned out with protests, and (2) there was no central theme to come out and support. July 1 protests tend to attract just about every group with a particular grievance or issue to promote, but there’s usually one core message, and traditionally it’s been related to universal suffrage. But the political reform package is done and dead and it’s not going to be revisited until at least 2017 (if ever), and the pro-demos have no clear strategy as to what their next move will be, so why spend the day in the baking sun beating a dead horse?
Of course, another way of looking at it is this: all of the pro-democracy protests held over the last couple of years accomplished pretty much nothing in the end. The govt didn’t listen and refused to compromise even a little, so what’s the point in screaming at a brick wall?
The die-hards who did turn up rolled out the usual “CY Leung step down” demands, and tried a new tack on the democracy debate – “If yr excuse is that the Basic Law doesn’t allow civil nominations, then let’s change the Basic Law!” Which is technically possible, but seeing as how that requires the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) agreeing with any proposed changes in the Basic Law, I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Interestingly, one theme that didn’t generate a lot of support was HK independence from China. The localist movement brought that one into the mix, and the march organizers were quick to point out that they don’t support that particular meme. They’re still very much about “one country, two systems” and aren’t interested in creating a separate country.
The localists probably failed to notice the irony that “one country, two systems” enabled them to openly demand independence in the first place. If they tried that anywhere else in China, they’d all be in a basement jail getting whipped with rubber hoses and we wouldn’t know about it because none of the TV stations covering the protests would be allowed to air footage of them – or if they did, the newscasters would be denouncing them as terrorists (and the newscasts would be used as "evidence" in their trial).
Anyway, no fights broke out, even with pro-Beijing groups holding counter-protests along the route. So all in all, I was wrong about the ugliness. And I’m happy to be wrong about such things.
Still, the organizers are right about one thing – the big drop in attendance isn't a vote of confidence for the HK Govt or an admission that they were right all along. On the other hand, here’s hoping the pro-demo groups listen to some of the reasons people have given for staying away – they perceive the pan-demos as an anti-everything group who resort to extreme cheap theatrics that don’t actually accomplish anything.
Fair call, at least for the more radical groups. If the pan-demos want to achieve anything in the next few years – and get the public behind them – they need a change of tactics. We have empirical evidence that occupying the streets and throwing fruit in LegCo won’t work. It’s time to try something else.
Staying home,
This is dF
