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defrogThe more Donald Trump increases his lead in the GOP nomination race, the more people keep asking, “Why the f*** is he winning?”
Because, of course, by every traditional bellwether in the Election Playbook, he’s not supposed to be.
There are a number of theories floating around. Lucky Bensonhurst reported here earlier that part of the reason is likely down to social media (and the changing role of mass media) allowing Trump to bypass the GOP party machine that tends to keep its candidates on-message.
Meanwhile, Joe Scarborough (of all people) has theorized that the reason Trump is getting a lot of his support from working-class conservatives is because the GOP has spent the last 30 years telling them the answers to their problems is deregulating Wall Street bankers and more tax breaks for the rich people who will pass the savings on to you. Only they haven’t. And the working class has essentially figured this out. (Whether Trump can actually solve their problems is another story, of course, but so far he’s arguably the only GOP candidate who is at least willing to address
This NYT article takes a similar line – namely, that the mostly white right-leaning/moderate working-class slobs who saw Obama and the Demos as being too elitist to understand them bought into the GOP’s “we hate Obama just as much as you do” line, only to find they were even more out of touch with their needs and concerns.
For added depth, I’d recommend this piece from FiveThirtyEight which mixes statistics with (and this is such a genius idea it’s amazing no one has thought of it) actually asking Trump supporters what they see in him.
I won’t go into the details, but here’s one interesting point the article raises: while Trump is regularly accused of fanning the flames of racism to boost his campaign, many of the people who buy into his anti-immigrant/anti-Muslim line genuinely have no idea that any of it is racist:
I think this is a valuable takeaway, because there is a very important distinction between people who actually are racist (or sexist, or homophobic, or whatever-phobic) and people who say or believe racist/sexist/whatever-phobic things. There is overlap, yes, but as I’ve written before, there’s a difference between hate and ignorance fortified with the blinders of white privilege, and that difference matters in terms of how you counter them.
Anyway, I recommend reading the NYT and FiveThirtyEight pieces. The Trump phenomenon is worth deconstructing beyond the usual name-calling, if only because you can bet that someone like Trump (or Cruz, for that matter) could happen again, unless the GOP elite figure out how to retake control of the process.
Which they probably will, but it will likely come at the expense of restructuring the party. The Economist suggests that a Trump vs Clinton race could end up transforming both the GOP and Democratic Party into something different than what they were up to now. Put another way, there’s a major opportunity here for both parties to shed outdated Vietnam-era political ideologies in exchange for something more pragmatic for the 21st Century. Which I think would be a good thing.
But it’s up to the party leadership on both sides (as well as whoever wins this election) to capitalize on that opportunity. The ideological purists who support Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders are still pressing for an all-or-nothing no-compromise referendum on the future of the country. If the party leaders give in to them, this election will look like a friendly garden party compared to 2020 and beyond.
How does he do it,
This is dF
Because, of course, by every traditional bellwether in the Election Playbook, he’s not supposed to be.
There are a number of theories floating around. Lucky Bensonhurst reported here earlier that part of the reason is likely down to social media (and the changing role of mass media) allowing Trump to bypass the GOP party machine that tends to keep its candidates on-message.
Meanwhile, Joe Scarborough (of all people) has theorized that the reason Trump is getting a lot of his support from working-class conservatives is because the GOP has spent the last 30 years telling them the answers to their problems is deregulating Wall Street bankers and more tax breaks for the rich people who will pass the savings on to you. Only they haven’t. And the working class has essentially figured this out. (Whether Trump can actually solve their problems is another story, of course, but so far he’s arguably the only GOP candidate who is at least willing to address
This NYT article takes a similar line – namely, that the mostly white right-leaning/moderate working-class slobs who saw Obama and the Demos as being too elitist to understand them bought into the GOP’s “we hate Obama just as much as you do” line, only to find they were even more out of touch with their needs and concerns.
For added depth, I’d recommend this piece from FiveThirtyEight which mixes statistics with (and this is such a genius idea it’s amazing no one has thought of it) actually asking Trump supporters what they see in him.
I won’t go into the details, but here’s one interesting point the article raises: while Trump is regularly accused of fanning the flames of racism to boost his campaign, many of the people who buy into his anti-immigrant/anti-Muslim line genuinely have no idea that any of it is racist:
David Merritt, managing director at Luntz Global, a political consulting firm known for its focus groups of Republican voters, says many Trump supporters reject the notion that their views are racist. “These people were actually surprised,” he told me. “They said, ‘Why would you think we’re racist because we want to protect America? When Muslim terrorists want to come into America and blow up our buildings and kill us, why is keeping them out racist?’”
I think this is a valuable takeaway, because there is a very important distinction between people who actually are racist (or sexist, or homophobic, or whatever-phobic) and people who say or believe racist/sexist/whatever-phobic things. There is overlap, yes, but as I’ve written before, there’s a difference between hate and ignorance fortified with the blinders of white privilege, and that difference matters in terms of how you counter them.
Anyway, I recommend reading the NYT and FiveThirtyEight pieces. The Trump phenomenon is worth deconstructing beyond the usual name-calling, if only because you can bet that someone like Trump (or Cruz, for that matter) could happen again, unless the GOP elite figure out how to retake control of the process.
Which they probably will, but it will likely come at the expense of restructuring the party. The Economist suggests that a Trump vs Clinton race could end up transforming both the GOP and Democratic Party into something different than what they were up to now. Put another way, there’s a major opportunity here for both parties to shed outdated Vietnam-era political ideologies in exchange for something more pragmatic for the 21st Century. Which I think would be a good thing.
But it’s up to the party leadership on both sides (as well as whoever wins this election) to capitalize on that opportunity. The ideological purists who support Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders are still pressing for an all-or-nothing no-compromise referendum on the future of the country. If the party leaders give in to them, this election will look like a friendly garden party compared to 2020 and beyond.
How does he do it,
This is dF
