(WISH I COULD FLY LIKE) SUPER TUESDAY
Mar. 7th, 2020 05:50 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrogWell that was interesting.
And now, the usual armchair color commentary on what we call the Super Tuesday:
1. I can’t claim I saw a Biden comeback coming, but I’m not terribly surprised by it. The general opinion of the experts was that the real litmus test for Biden was South Carolina, which – unlike Iowa and NH – has a majority black population, a demographic Biden has typically done well with, even if many people find this mystifying.
If nothing else (and with all apologies to![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
bedsitter23 ) it gives credence to the argument that Iowa and NH should not be the opening contests because they no longer represent the sample pulse of the electorate. Iowa made sense at a time when 90% of the overall US voting population was white – now that whites are only something like 60% (and despite the apparent best efforts of Republicans to make it harder for the other 40% to vote), it’s probably time to let more demographically diverse states go first.
2. I won’t call it for Biden just yet – in terms of delegate count, Sanders is still very much in this, and with the field down to two (yes, I know about Tulsi Gabbard, and no, I don’t know why – I’m not 100% sure she does, either), he still has a shot at this – provided he can unite the rest of the party behind him, which Matthew Yglesias argues he is perfectly capable of doing.
The catch, notes Ezra Klein, is that it’s not entirely clear Sanders wants to do that (or thinks he needs to) if it means compromising with the mod lane even a little. Indeed, his whole campaign is built on the “never compromise” line. Which is fine I guess if you have the numbers – Team Sanders is betting they do. The results so far suggest otherwise, but by the time we get to the convention, we’ll know for sure.
3. It’s a shame that Elizabeth Warren has dropped out, although yes, at this stage it was probably time to do so. Which is disappointing, to say the least. I haven't written much here about it due to lack of time, but Warren was an early favorite of mine, and as the field narrowed she remained the one candidate I felt had the chops to not only take on Trump, but actually be a better than average POTUS. Also, I was hoping to see her get on the debate stage and do to Trump what she did to Michael Bloomberg.
There’s already lots of analysis in progress about where it went wrong for her, but I suspect it will come down to the simple and sad fact that voters still want Old White Dudes™ to be POTUS, with emphasis on the “Dudes” part. I won’t say sexism is the only reason her campaign failed, but it wasn’t an insignificant factor either – certainly a lot of Demos were looking back at 2016 and thinking, “We TRIED a woman candidate once and look where it got us – we can’t afford to be doing any social experiments now!”
Al I can say is that Warren had so much going for her as a candidate – smart, assertive, experienced, tough, a solid grasp on the issues, a plan for everything and a good track record on elections. If that doesn’t make her the obvious choice, what else ultimately disqualified her? And what does that say about America as a whole?
4. So we’re basically back to business as usual in America, where yr choice is limited to Old White Dudes™. Yay.
5. As for which Old White Dude™ I’d rather see win … well, obviously I’d pick Sanders or Biden over Trump in a heartbeat. As for Biden vs Sanders, it’s a moot point for me – my primary was TN, which is over, and I didn’t vote for either of them. So it’s not really up to me now.
Personally I’m not enthusiastic about either of them – I think both of them are atavistic Boomer relics from a political era whose ideology is out of step with the concerns of the modern age. (Technically so is Warren, but she seems like the more adaptable of the three.)
The only criteria that matters to me right now is: which one is more likely to beat Trump? The DNC thinks it’s Biden. Team Bernie thinks it’s Bernie. I think they’re both wrong.
The current polls indicate both of them would beat Trump if the election were held today and the Electoral College didn’t exist. Unfortunately, it does exist. Also, the gloves will really come off after the nominee is chosen, and frankly both Biden and Sanders have weak spots that Team Trump (and its clandestine Russian bot army) can and will exploit. You can yell all day about how Bernie isn’t THAT kind of socialist and the Hunter Biden scandal is 100% manufactured – and you’d be 100% right, and it wouldn’t matter. Just ask Hillary Clinton.
I could be wrong – I hope I am. But I’m not optimistic. We live in a time where no one seems to understand how elections or political parties actually work, and where over 40% of the country has decided what they really want in a POTUS is a dumb, loudmouthed insult comedian who uses his office as a bully pulpit to rip into everyone and everything they hate.
Honestly, I think the only way Trump is going to lose this thing is if he does something so incredibly stupid and damaging to the US that even the GOP will turn on him. And given what he’s done so far, it would have to be something epic – like, say, handling the Covid-19 outbreak so badly that the economy nosedives and lots of people die.
Which, you know, I’d rather not happen. And anyway, even that probably wouldn't work as long as Trump can continue to blame everything on Obama, Hillary and fake news.
Tuesday’s gone,
This is dF
And now, the usual armchair color commentary on what we call the Super Tuesday:
1. I can’t claim I saw a Biden comeback coming, but I’m not terribly surprised by it. The general opinion of the experts was that the real litmus test for Biden was South Carolina, which – unlike Iowa and NH – has a majority black population, a demographic Biden has typically done well with, even if many people find this mystifying.
If nothing else (and with all apologies to
bedsitter23 ) it gives credence to the argument that Iowa and NH should not be the opening contests because they no longer represent the sample pulse of the electorate. Iowa made sense at a time when 90% of the overall US voting population was white – now that whites are only something like 60% (and despite the apparent best efforts of Republicans to make it harder for the other 40% to vote), it’s probably time to let more demographically diverse states go first. 2. I won’t call it for Biden just yet – in terms of delegate count, Sanders is still very much in this, and with the field down to two (yes, I know about Tulsi Gabbard, and no, I don’t know why – I’m not 100% sure she does, either), he still has a shot at this – provided he can unite the rest of the party behind him, which Matthew Yglesias argues he is perfectly capable of doing.
The catch, notes Ezra Klein, is that it’s not entirely clear Sanders wants to do that (or thinks he needs to) if it means compromising with the mod lane even a little. Indeed, his whole campaign is built on the “never compromise” line. Which is fine I guess if you have the numbers – Team Sanders is betting they do. The results so far suggest otherwise, but by the time we get to the convention, we’ll know for sure.
3. It’s a shame that Elizabeth Warren has dropped out, although yes, at this stage it was probably time to do so. Which is disappointing, to say the least. I haven't written much here about it due to lack of time, but Warren was an early favorite of mine, and as the field narrowed she remained the one candidate I felt had the chops to not only take on Trump, but actually be a better than average POTUS. Also, I was hoping to see her get on the debate stage and do to Trump what she did to Michael Bloomberg.
There’s already lots of analysis in progress about where it went wrong for her, but I suspect it will come down to the simple and sad fact that voters still want Old White Dudes™ to be POTUS, with emphasis on the “Dudes” part. I won’t say sexism is the only reason her campaign failed, but it wasn’t an insignificant factor either – certainly a lot of Demos were looking back at 2016 and thinking, “We TRIED a woman candidate once and look where it got us – we can’t afford to be doing any social experiments now!”
Al I can say is that Warren had so much going for her as a candidate – smart, assertive, experienced, tough, a solid grasp on the issues, a plan for everything and a good track record on elections. If that doesn’t make her the obvious choice, what else ultimately disqualified her? And what does that say about America as a whole?
4. So we’re basically back to business as usual in America, where yr choice is limited to Old White Dudes™. Yay.
5. As for which Old White Dude™ I’d rather see win … well, obviously I’d pick Sanders or Biden over Trump in a heartbeat. As for Biden vs Sanders, it’s a moot point for me – my primary was TN, which is over, and I didn’t vote for either of them. So it’s not really up to me now.
Personally I’m not enthusiastic about either of them – I think both of them are atavistic Boomer relics from a political era whose ideology is out of step with the concerns of the modern age. (Technically so is Warren, but she seems like the more adaptable of the three.)
The only criteria that matters to me right now is: which one is more likely to beat Trump? The DNC thinks it’s Biden. Team Bernie thinks it’s Bernie. I think they’re both wrong.
The current polls indicate both of them would beat Trump if the election were held today and the Electoral College didn’t exist. Unfortunately, it does exist. Also, the gloves will really come off after the nominee is chosen, and frankly both Biden and Sanders have weak spots that Team Trump (and its clandestine Russian bot army) can and will exploit. You can yell all day about how Bernie isn’t THAT kind of socialist and the Hunter Biden scandal is 100% manufactured – and you’d be 100% right, and it wouldn’t matter. Just ask Hillary Clinton.
I could be wrong – I hope I am. But I’m not optimistic. We live in a time where no one seems to understand how elections or political parties actually work, and where over 40% of the country has decided what they really want in a POTUS is a dumb, loudmouthed insult comedian who uses his office as a bully pulpit to rip into everyone and everything they hate.
Honestly, I think the only way Trump is going to lose this thing is if he does something so incredibly stupid and damaging to the US that even the GOP will turn on him. And given what he’s done so far, it would have to be something epic – like, say, handling the Covid-19 outbreak so badly that the economy nosedives and lots of people die.
Which, you know, I’d rather not happen. And anyway, even that probably wouldn't work as long as Trump can continue to blame everything on Obama, Hillary and fake news.
Tuesday’s gone,
This is dF
