ANARCHY IN THE HK, PART 391 (DARTH PLAGUEIS EDITION)

[defrog]

Hong Kong is now at 518 COVID-19 cases. And of course that’s nothing compared to the US, Italy, Iran, mainland China, and other countries, but since HK gets pointed to as an example of how to flatten the curve, I thought I’d post something about the reason why we’re now at 518 cases because it's instructive of how social distancing is indeed ‘a marathon, not a sprint’, and what happens when you let your guard down.

 

The short version: despite the HK govt initially failing to take any serious measures to close the borders and ensure enough PPE for everyone, we had managed to keep the number of COVID-19 cases down by most people imposing their own mitigation techniques that we learned from SARS: work from/stay at home as much as possible, wear a mask when going out, wash your hands constantly, etc.

 

It hasn’t been uniform or perfect by any means, but it still managed to flatten the curve so that we kept the number of cases down to a manageable level – for the first two months after the first case was discovered in HK, we had something like 140 COVID-19 cases and just four deaths.

 

That changed a little over a week ago when we started importing cases from countries where the infection rates are much higher. Unfortunately this happened at a time when people had cautiously started venturing out again, eating out, going to the gym and going to bars to socialize – not in mass numbers, but more than in the last month or so. And some of the imports (or their friends/family) went out to places like Lan Kwai Fung where all the popular bars are.

 

Lan Kwai Fung is now the cluster center for this latest outbreak, and the number of cases is now double from last week and over 3x from two weeks ago.

 

Which is why the HK govt imposed new rules yesterday in which entertainment venues must be closed for 14 days, while public gatherings of more than four people are not allowed (with a few practical exceptions). Any restaurants that want to stay open must ensure their customers can comply with these rules via seating arrangements, limiting the number of people who can come in at once, etc.

 

The takeaway is this: HK had been practising social distancing and hygiene measures imperfectly but consistently for around 60 days. And it worked – then we got a bit lax, some new cases arrived from overseas, and look what happened.

 

At the same time, this also illustrates that social distancing is hard to maintain for a long period of time on your own initiative. It’s not just economics (although yes, HK’s economy has also taken a major hit from COVID-19, and that’s on top of the economic impact from last year’s protests) – people can only stay cooped up for so long, especially in a place like HK where most of live in high-rises in small apartments, some as big as a broom closet.

 

In HK, we mitigate that with masks and hand sanitizer, etc. But it only goes so far. You need solid and consistent govt leadership setting the example and imposing limitations.

(Edited to add [March 28, 22:43]: Not that we have that in HK. I'll be doing a separate post on that. I'm speaking generally here.)

 

Yes, social distancing is hard on the economy – that’s why we need to think of ways to mitigate the economic impact as well, especially for people whose jobs are not the kind you can do at home (HK has a few measures in place, but could arguably be doing far more than it has).

 

But ending it too soon would make the economy worse because it would result in even more infections and more deaths, so Dan Patrick would have sacrificed your grandparents for nothing.

 

So all up, HK has proven two things: (1) social distancing works, and (2) ending it early is a bad idea.

 

Learn from us.

 

PS: There’s also been some debate about whether wearing masks would help. A few words on that:

 

Yes, ideally you should be wearing them. Professor Zeynep Tufekci explains why, and why the mixed messages from WHO, the govt and the media have mostly confused people and made things worse.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE: To be clear, masks are just one tool in your COVID-19 protection toolbox. Masks alone won’t protect you. Masks + washing your hands, staying home and other measures will make a difference vs doing those things with no mask.

 

Wash yr damn hands,

 

This is dF