MORE SENSELESS ACTS OF BLOGGERY

Man, this election cycle is off the freaking hook, isn’t it?

So much so that I think I’ll espouse my opinions grouped by party. I shall do the Demos first.

1. Biden is out, and Kamala is effectively in. And, you know, good.

And also, wow. As I posted before, it was always up to Biden and Biden alone to step aside, and I didn’t really expect that he would. And I have to say I respect him for it.

And also also, while I personally didn’t think Biden needed replacing in terms of winnability, I’m happy to vote for Harris – who, as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, was one of my top 3 choices in 2020 (Biden, I must say, was not).

2. Some are complaining that it’s not democratic – “What about all the people who voted for Biden in the primaries?”

Well, first of all, this is how the DNC system has worked for decades. Delegates have the flexibility to change their minds as circumstances warrant – this being one of them.

Also, the people who voted for Biden were voting for an incumbent who was running virtually unopposed, which is incredibly normal. Biden seemed fine then – he seems less fine now, and might get worse as the election goes on, in which case I would think you’d want the flexibility to switch horses before it’s too late.

Which is why the answer to the Big Question – “Who do we replace him with?” – really had to be Harris. As I’ve also said before – and as Josh Marshall at TPM points out far more eloquently – a Thunderdome convention would be risky, messy and a much harder sell to everyone who voted for what was essentially a renewal of the Biden-Harris package that also comes with the presumption that, should Biden (for example, and God forbid) die or otherwise be unable to continue, Harris would take the wheel. That’s a relatively easy pitch in a unique situation like this, as opposed to giving every other POTUS hopeful a last-minute shot, which IMO would be a far more egregious middle finger to primary voters. And as Marshall notes, about the only people calling for a contested convention are news columnists who want a good fight.

3. That said, I think another reason Biden waited as long as he did is probably down to his simply being an elderly man coming to terms with the fact that he’s finally getting too old for this s***. I’ve dealt with a number of elderly people, including my mom, and sometimes the decline is slow, sometimes it’s rapid, but either way it’s hard for them to accept that once it starts. It’s also difficult for friends and family to accept it too sometimes.

And I’m sure Biden felt slighted by what he saw is his closest allies starting to turn on him, whether their intentions were noble, practical or opportunistic. I mean, Biden wouldn't be the first octogenarian to resent both his declining health and his closest family and friends essentially saying "Look Pops, we love you and you did great but you're no use to us anymore", even if they're right, and even if he knows deep down that they are.

4. John Scalzi makes the interesting (and possibly correct) observation that at least some of this has been strategic on the part of the DNC – which is to say, at some point their initial panic over Biden’s debate performance and subsequent desire to convince him to drop out transformed into an actual strategy to manage the transition with two particular goals: (1) make a plausible case for handing off to Harris after the primaries to ensure the handover was executed as legitimately as possible, and (2) completely throw Team Trump off their game.

I think he’s on to something here. Considering that Harris raised hundreds of millions and secured all the delegates she needs to get the nomination within the first 48 hours of the news, it’s possible that a lot of that groundwork was laid before Biden announced he was stepping aside.

Either that or it was a huge gamble that luckily paid off. But political parties aren’t known for Hail Mary plays unless they’re desperate. So I think it’s more likely that the DNC probably did some planning and legwork here.

As for the goal of catching Team Trump by surprise, between Trump’s tweets and Stephen Miller’s meltdown on live television, well, yes, mischief managed.

5. The GOP freakout over this is, I have to admit, kind of delicious. And while some are posturing about the democratic fairness of it all, I don’t think they really care about that. I for one will certainly not sit here and be lectured about democratic processes and fairness by a party whose current candidate is a convicted felon who literally tried to overthrow the last election because he couldn’t accept the fact that he lost.

Anyway, I think they’re mainly panicking because they thought they were going to walk all over Sleepy Joe Biden and now they’ve got an actual fight on their hands.

I mean, look at some of the wild ideas they’re throwing out there. It’s a Kamala Koup to overthrow Biden! Let’s impeach Harris! Biden must resign! We’ll sue the DNC to put Biden back on the ballot!

The first one is silly (and possibly projection of some kind). The second and third ones are even sillier, and I have no idea what they think either action would accomplish that benefits them in any way.

As for the lawsuit, well, good luck with that, since Biden wasn’t on the ballot anyway, and the DNC literally did nothing illegal or unfair. On the other hand, as Ian Millhiser at Vox notes, the one thing going in the GOP’s favour is that it’s very likely to get the suit in front of a pro-Trump federal judge who may well do them a solid, and inevitably end up before the Supremes, and we all know about them by now.

6. As for Harris’ potential running mate, I don’t really mind who she picks as long as it’s someone reasonably sensible who also won’t poison the well. That said, I think would be hilarious if she picked Biden, if only to see Trump and the MAGA Party just lose their flipping minds. I’m not saying I actually want her to do that, or that she should. I’m just saying it would be funny. At first, anyway.

7. Now, of course, assuming the DNC convention goes off without a hitch and Harris' nomination becomes official, she has to go out there and win – and that includes withstanding the vile shitstorm of hate coming from Team Trump. I think she can withstand it just fine. A lot can and will happen between now and November, but at the moment, her chances look promising. If nothing else the switch to Harris has energised the base, which is good – and also gives further credence to the notion that that dropping Biden was a good idea.

(I'm not sure how Biden feels about that. But you don’t stay in this business 40 years without developing a thick skin, so I think he’ll be okay.)

8. Meanwhile, Harris’ greatest ally is probably Trump and his new sidekick JD Vance coming up with stuff like “She can’t be President because she’s never given birth” (which makes no sense at all) and then run with it to pitch ideas like “People with biological kids should get more votes than people who don’t” (which makes even less sense).

More on that in due course.

Kamala ye faithful,

This is dF

As you probably know, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate of 2024. And everyone is freaking out about it, so I thought I’d better post something, mainly to organize my own thoughts in my head. So:

1. No I didn’t watch it. I rarely watch live debates anymore – partly because I’m in the wrong time zone, but mainly because (1) it’s rare that any candidate says anything of substance that I haven’t heard them say before, and (2) in this case, I already know who is getting my vote – and it’s not the pathological liar who has been convicted of one felony (so far) and literally whipped a mob into trying to overturn the 2020 election results by force. So the highlights reel is usually enough for me.

2. Based on that, I’ll be the first to admit Biden had a bad night, whether it was the cold medication or whatever. That said, I don’t think it justifies either the crowing on the right or the freakout on the left. I certainly don’t agree with the hot takes that Biden lost the debate because he wasn’t as loud and energetic as Trump – which is a silly way to declare the winner of a debate. I’ve actually seen some Demos say “Yes, Trump lied his ass off and made little sense, but he did it with confidence and energy.” Well, okay, but if you think that’s what makes him seem more presidential, then I don’t really know what to tell you.

3. Perhaps understandably, part of the freakout is that it plays into the GOP’s whole “Biden’s too old” meme (despite Trump being just a few years younger and obviously in far worse health, but okay), so now we’re back to the “replace Biden” meme, backed by (1) Demos who are afraid he can’t beat Trump in what’s looking like another close election and (2) hardcore liberals who viscerally hate Biden for his Israel/Gaza policy and have threatened to vote for Trump just to hold Biden accountable unless he drops out.

4. Anyone who knows about how party politics and US elections work will tell you that’s not likely to happen. Biden has won all the primaries and most of the delegates that go with them, and a brokered convention will be too messy and risky. Also, no one seems to agree on the answer to the most important question: replace Biden with who, exactly? Apart from Kamala Harris, there are a few other names being thrown about (none of which are RFK Jr, thankfully). But the fact of the matter is that of the bunch, Biden is the only one with a proven track record of beating Trump in a general election. Throwing that away for someone else over one bad debate performance would be a major gamble. So unless Biden dies or willingly steps down – and there’s currently no reason to believe that he’ll do either – we’re probably stuck with him.

5. This where a lot of people will complain about the party system and DNC mechanisms and the electoral college and whatnot, and that’s fine, but that’s a whole separate set of problems that has no bearing on who gets to be the Demo nominee for 2024, because it’s way too late for that. That’s a discussion for 2028 and beyond, and it’s worth having now, but, well, see above.

6. The bigger question of course is what all this means for November. As the saying goes, five months is a long time in politics, so even if the debate moves the needle in Trump’s favor, Biden has the time and opportunity to turn that around. Meanwhile, we’ve already seen a couple of post-debate talks where Biden was already back on form, and one of the first post-debate polls suggests that Biden’s debate performance didn’t hurt him. So Demos can probably stop panicking now.  

7. However, we’re still looking at a close race that Biden can still lose. And honestly, while I’m not officially calling the election for Trump yet, I have to say, my gut feeling is that he is going to pull this off. Again. And this time with the full backing of the GOP, which is now his party. Trump won in 2016 despite all conventional political wisdom saying it was impossible AND losing the pop vote. There’s no reason to assume he can’t do it again – especially if the far left really can’t bring themselves to vote for Biden and go with Trump, RFK Jr or a blank protest vote.

8. The nihilist in me can’t help thinking that if a slim majority of people is willing to vote for Trump despite being a blithering pathological liar and a wannabe dictator who has been convicted of one felony (so far) and literally whipped a mob etc etc etc – even if the reason is that Biden is too old or whatever – maybe democracy should die?

9. Okay, not really. But for me, there’s no mystery here. We know what a Trump presidency looks like, and that was when the GOP wasn’t fully onboard and things like Project 2025 were just a gleam in Kevin Roberts’ eye. We also know what a Biden presidency looks like, and at least on paper, it’s been reasonably good more often than not and relatively sane compared to the previous admin. Which is why it’s inexplicable to me that people outside of the MAGA party would want to put Trump back in charge.

10. But as I’ve said elsewhere, people vote for all kinds of personal, idiosyncratic reasons, and in the current reality schism, I don’t know what can be done to change that, especially since a complex problem usually requires an even more complex solution. All I can say for now is that if Trump does win, and if we somehow survive his second term, we might want to think long and hard about how we got here and what we should do about it.

I’m not going to debate you Jerry,

This is dF