defrog: (puzzler)

As you’ve no doubt heard by now, the Supreme Court has ruled that Donald J Trump has limited immunity from prosecution for stuff he did while he was President. I’ve been too busy to write anything about it, but I got minute now, and you’re all just dying to know what I think, so here you go:

 

1. Actually, I don’t have much to say about it that Radley Balko hasn’t already said here. His dissection is very long but worth your time to really appreciate what just happened and why it’s probably even worse than you may have heard.

 

The main takeaway worth highlighting is the uselessness of Chief Roberts’ ruling that immunity only applies to “official acts” related to exercising “core constitutional powers”:

 

“The President enjoys no immunity for his unofficial acts, and not everything the President does is official. The President is not above the law.”

 

The problem, Balko notes, is that in practice, the line between official and unofficial acts is so fuzzy that there might as well not be a line at all. And Roberts’ ruling pretty much ensures that by giving no guidelines on how to do that, and also making it illegal to consider the president’s motives:

 

As both Sotomayor and Jackson point out, the majority has created this distinction between “official” and “unofficial” acts out of thin air, then made it impossible to distinguish one from the other. A president can come up with an “official” reason for just about any crime — from accepting bribes, to arresting journalists and critics, to targeted assassinations. Then — I guess we just take his word for it.

 

2. Also, as Josh Marshall at TPM correctly points out, this is a big deal because the official acts of presidents are exactly the sort of thing you don’t want to give presidents immunity for – no one cares if the President steals a toaster, but we do care if he orders the military to assassinate a rival, or jails journalists, or orders prisoners to be tortured.

 

Marshall also agrees that the distinction between official and unofficial acts is meaningless:

 

… even though this is clearly not blanket or absolute immunity that it’s close enough that with good lawyering you’re all but there.

 

3. Of course the Republicans are crowing about this, although don’t yet seem to have figured out that President Biden – and any Democrat POTUS that follows him – now has the exact same immunity powers – which hasn’t stopped them from calling Biden be arrested for treason, but then logic and consistency has never really been a thing in MAGA World.

 

And anyway, it may not matter to them because they figure this election is for keeps – once Trump is back in and Project 2025 is implemented, they hope to fix it do no Democrat ever wins the White House ever again. Problem solved.

 

4. Which is the other big issue, of course – Project 2025 is nothing short of a declaration of cultural war by the MAGA party against the liberal scourge they fear so much and a permanent takeover of conservative rule with democratic processes preserved largely as window dressing (see: Hungary, Hong Kong, etc). And while most of it could probably be accomplished through technically legal means, whatever legal constraints exist will not be an issue as long as Trump declares them official acts.

Kevin Roberts has famously declared that Project 2025 is “a second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.” And while maybe he thinks he’s saying that there won’t be any violence unless the left starts it, what it sounds like to me is: “Just roll over and accept this – don’t make us force it on you because we will.” Either way, he knows now that using violence to enforce this is on the table. And there’s a significant chunk of the MAGA cult that is very much looking forward to dishing it out.

 

5. It’s hard to believe the SCOTUS majority is blissfully unaware of all this (Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas certainly aren’t), although maybe some of them are kidding themselves that the institutions will still hold, and you can always just vote Trump out. But Chief Roberts seems more worried about a vicious cycle of endless prosecutions of presidents than holding them accountable for actual crimes, which suggests at best that his priorities are at odds with reality.

 

6. Anyway, all of this is basically the latest chapter of an ongoing debate whether any US president can ever realistically be held accountable for any crimes they commit while in office, and whether impeachment is a sufficient solution. As we’ve seen, it’s not.

I’ve posted about that before, and all I can really add to it is that the SCOTUS decision on immunity pretty much seals the deal – Presidents can crime as much as they want as long as they make them look like official acts. And I continue to believe we need to really think long and hard about whether that’s the kind of country we want to live in, and if so, why.

 

Crime time,

This is dF

defrog: (Default)
 And so eventually Donald Trump has actually been indicted for something – and it could be the first of many. The internet is a-buzz, and the GOP reaction has been 100% predictable, to say nothing of Trump’s gibbering word-salad firehose of a response.

 

Well, it doesn’t get more bloggable than this, so …

 

1. To get the obvious out of the way, of course we don’t know how airtight Bragg’s case is, and it is entirely possible that even Trump’s legal team could find a way to dismantle it enough to get an acquittal, a mistrial or whatever. Some have said it’s the weakest case of the four that have been brewing the last few years. We’ll just have to wait and see. I will say that Trump's tactic of publicly attacking the judge and his family probably isn't going to go the way he thinks.

 

2. However it plays out, I will be very surprised if it ends with Trump doing time. Billionaires rarely go to jail. At most he may be slapped with hefty fines (which, true to his character, he probably won’t pay). 

 

3. If we’ve learned anything from this so far, it’s that the GOP is very much Trump’s party. We knew this already, of course, but there was the usual buzz that the GOP has wanted to drop him like 3rd Period French for awhile now, especially because of his looming legal problems, and an indictment would be the perfect political excuse to finally wash their hands of him.

 

Turns out, ha ha, no. Just about everyone apart from the handful of dedicated Never-Trumpers (your Romneys and Liz Cheneys and whatnot) has firmly defended Trump as the totally innocent victim of a vicious gay liberal witch hunt/conspiracy to steal the 2020 election and jail/punish all opposition to the resulting Biden Dynasty. Or words to that effect.

 

4. One big reason for this, of course, is that they’re afraid of the MAGA base, who has made it clear in no uncertain terms that Trump is the second coming of Jesus and that anyone who says otherwise will be dealt with accordingly. Of course, the GOP is largely responsible for enabling that base, so, you know, hey ho.

 

Which is also why the usual metric the GOP uses for this sort of thing – “Will this cost us the White House in the next election?” – isn’t that reliable. There’s no law preventing Trump from running for office even if he goes to jail, and the MAGA base is very likely to vote for him regardless. So the risk of a split vote is very real. If they can’t convince the base that, say, Ron DeSantis is an acceptable Trump substitute, I think the GOP will have no choice but to rally behind Trump and take their chances.

 

5. One silver lining, I suppose, is that the MAGA base has not been inclined to take to the streets en masse and rip shit up, despite being urged to do so by Trump himself, as well as the usual lackeys like Marjorie Taylor Greene. But the potential for political violence is the highest it’s been since the 1960s, so I’m expecting to see more isolated incidents as the trial goes on.

 

6. The GOP has also been offering a predictable litany of defenses, my favorite of which is “We don’t arrest former Presidents / current POTUS candidates in this country!”

 

… Well, you know, maybe we should?

 

Seriously, though, it’s worth unpacking that statement, because it basically implies that we don’t arrest former Presidents / current POTUS candidates because it’s not allowed, or it’s an unwritten rule or something.

 

In the first place, POTUS (and other) candidates have been arrested before, so it’s not unprecedented. Also, one reason former POTUSes haven’t been arrested before is because only a few have ever faced possible criminal charges. Of those, Warren Harding died in office and Richard Nixon was pre-emptively pardoned by his loyal sideman Gerald Ford. As for Bill Clinton, he was successfully sued by Paula Jones while in office, and while he did face possible criminal charges for perjury and obstructing justice, he did what a lot of rich and powerful people do – he avoided indictment by cutting a deal, which in his case resulted in a $25,000 fine and suspension of his law license for five years.

 

Trump, incidentally, probably could have done something similar to avoid indictment, but that would mean admitting wrongdoing (as Clinton had to do as part of his deal), which he is constitutionally incapable of doing.

 

7. In any case, I for one refuse to be lectured by the party of “LOCK HER UP!” about the inappropriateness of indicting POTUS candidates and former Presidents.

 

8. I do think the “We don’t arrest former Presidents” meme raises the question of accountability and to what extent we think Presidents (current or former) should be above the law. Impeachment is supposed to be the preferred remedy of high crimes and misdemeanors in the White House, but it’s a political solution, not a judicial one. And the politics makes it risky, lest we get into an endless cycle of political revenge (as various Repubs are now threatening to do).

 

The dilemma is: If it’s politically too dangerous to impeach or arrest a POTUS, what incentive remains for a POTUS to follow the law – especially a POTUS who turns out to be a pathological liar with no regard for the law and a willingness to burn the country to the ground if it means staying out of jail?

 

9. The other big question of course is: what does this mean for his re-election chances? It’s not clear yet, although we’ve already established that (1) you can still legally run for (and win) the Presidency from a jail cell, and (2) the MAGA base will vote for Trump no matter what. And it’s a given that Trump will milk this for everything it’s worth, so I think he’s still just as likely to at least win the nomination. He might not win the general election, but that may have been true before the indictment.

 

10. The one thing we can be sure of is that the political climate in the US is going to get a lot worse. The indictment will feed the MAGA crowd’s persecution complex and fuel the GOP’s apparent commitment to embrace fascism and turn America into Hungary to save it from the Soros-Backed Woke Trans Antifa Drag Queen Biden Army.

 

However, in my opinion, that’s no reason not to indict Trump. The fact that he’s been indicted at all speaks volumes – I think few DAs, and no grand jury, would bring a case like this if there wasn’t enough evidence to justify the expense and the extraordinary sociopolitical consequences. And again, this is only one of several cases brewing – Trump has pushed the limits of what the “norms” of not arresting Presidents will accept.

 

Trump has basically forced the nation to reckon with a major dilemma: When a POTUS unabashedly crimes with impunity, our choices are (1) indict him and uphold rule of law, or (2) accept that any POTUS can crime all they want with no consequences apart from losing their re-election campaign (which they could also claim was stolen and refuse to accept).

 

Which will it be?

 

Stormy weather,

 

This is dF

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