![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
defrogFollowing the testimony of Dr Christine Blasey Ford (which I didn’t watch, no) and the subsequent reactions, I do have a few things to add.
1. I believe her.
2. I’m not sure it matters, because the (male) GOP senators have made perfectly clear that they don’t care whether she’s telling the truth or not.
If they care about anything, it’s the terrifying prospect that their entire careers could be ended by any woman who decides to accuse them of sexual misconduct no matter how long ago it may have happened. And I’m sure the rise of #MeToo and #WhyIDidntReport has made them all too aware of the fact that women are more likely to be believed these days if they do step forward – which is a change from the good old days when you could just slut-shame them into silence and men could get on with their productive lives.
Kavanaugh’s statement pretty much encapsulates all of that. He’s not just proclaiming his innocence (which would be understandable and natural, whether it’s true or not). He’s trying to rally all men everywhere to his defense with the dire warning that if we let Blasey Ford get away with this, none of us are safe. We will all become unemployable at the mere hint of an allegation. And it will be all the fault of Democrats.
3. So, to summarize Points 1 and 2, the basic message the GOP is pushing here is: (1) we don't care what Kavanaugh did in his past or who got hurt, we want him on the SCOTUS bench and that’s all we care about, (2) a man’s career is far, far more important than the trauma of any woman he has sexually victimized, and (3) if we believe Dr Blasey Ford, we have to believe all women who make such allegations, and we all know where that leads – all men will be unemployed or in prison, and you can thank the f***ing femi-Nazi Democrats for that.
All of which is hard to take seriously, given that the GOP is perfectly credulous when it comes to allegations of sexual assault/harassment against people like, say, Bill Clinton, Anthony Weiner and Al Franken. And honestly, the notion that all of this is a plot by Democrats to keep Kavanaugh off the bench doesn’t hold up when you remember that the number of women materializing out of nowhere to accuse Neil Gorsuch of sexual assault/harassment is [checks notes] zero.
4. The other GOP message here is, of course, “boys will be boys”. And it’s a message that at least some teenage girls are hearing loud and clear.
5. Trump has (finally) instructed the FBI to investigate, which is perhaps telling, given how Trump generally seems to think the job of the FBI is to put his personal enemies in jail. Maybe he’s hoping they’ll put Dr Blasey Ford in jail for lying to Congress? Or they’ll find out Hillary Clinton put her up to all this and put HER in jail? Or maybe he wants to know what boofing is so he can know if he’s done that yet? I don’t know.
6. Still, I can’t shake the feeling that no matter what the FBI finds, Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed, simply because that’s just how the current GOP leadership works. As long as you’re onboard with their ideology, they don't care if yr a gibbering idiot, a pathological liar who pals around with ruthless dictators, or a serial philanderer who pays his mistresses hush money and brags about being rich enough to get away with pussy-grabbing at will – so long as you get results.
I dunno. It’s hard to imagine the GOP dropping Kavanaugh now, and I’m not convinced holdouts like Flake, Murkowski and Collins will vote against him when push comes to shove. At this stage, I’m afraid the only way Kavanaugh isn’t getting confirmed is if he decides it’s not worth it and withdraws.
I’ll be more than happy to be proven wrong. But, you know, given how this admin has a history of hiring the most unqualified people possible to fill job positions, I’m not optimistic.
Getting away with it,
This is dF
1. I believe her.
2. I’m not sure it matters, because the (male) GOP senators have made perfectly clear that they don’t care whether she’s telling the truth or not.
If they care about anything, it’s the terrifying prospect that their entire careers could be ended by any woman who decides to accuse them of sexual misconduct no matter how long ago it may have happened. And I’m sure the rise of #MeToo and #WhyIDidntReport has made them all too aware of the fact that women are more likely to be believed these days if they do step forward – which is a change from the good old days when you could just slut-shame them into silence and men could get on with their productive lives.
Kavanaugh’s statement pretty much encapsulates all of that. He’s not just proclaiming his innocence (which would be understandable and natural, whether it’s true or not). He’s trying to rally all men everywhere to his defense with the dire warning that if we let Blasey Ford get away with this, none of us are safe. We will all become unemployable at the mere hint of an allegation. And it will be all the fault of Democrats.
3. So, to summarize Points 1 and 2, the basic message the GOP is pushing here is: (1) we don't care what Kavanaugh did in his past or who got hurt, we want him on the SCOTUS bench and that’s all we care about, (2) a man’s career is far, far more important than the trauma of any woman he has sexually victimized, and (3) if we believe Dr Blasey Ford, we have to believe all women who make such allegations, and we all know where that leads – all men will be unemployed or in prison, and you can thank the f***ing femi-Nazi Democrats for that.
All of which is hard to take seriously, given that the GOP is perfectly credulous when it comes to allegations of sexual assault/harassment against people like, say, Bill Clinton, Anthony Weiner and Al Franken. And honestly, the notion that all of this is a plot by Democrats to keep Kavanaugh off the bench doesn’t hold up when you remember that the number of women materializing out of nowhere to accuse Neil Gorsuch of sexual assault/harassment is [checks notes] zero.
4. The other GOP message here is, of course, “boys will be boys”. And it’s a message that at least some teenage girls are hearing loud and clear.
5. Trump has (finally) instructed the FBI to investigate, which is perhaps telling, given how Trump generally seems to think the job of the FBI is to put his personal enemies in jail. Maybe he’s hoping they’ll put Dr Blasey Ford in jail for lying to Congress? Or they’ll find out Hillary Clinton put her up to all this and put HER in jail? Or maybe he wants to know what boofing is so he can know if he’s done that yet? I don’t know.
6. Still, I can’t shake the feeling that no matter what the FBI finds, Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed, simply because that’s just how the current GOP leadership works. As long as you’re onboard with their ideology, they don't care if yr a gibbering idiot, a pathological liar who pals around with ruthless dictators, or a serial philanderer who pays his mistresses hush money and brags about being rich enough to get away with pussy-grabbing at will – so long as you get results.
I dunno. It’s hard to imagine the GOP dropping Kavanaugh now, and I’m not convinced holdouts like Flake, Murkowski and Collins will vote against him when push comes to shove. At this stage, I’m afraid the only way Kavanaugh isn’t getting confirmed is if he decides it’s not worth it and withdraws.
I’ll be more than happy to be proven wrong. But, you know, given how this admin has a history of hiring the most unqualified people possible to fill job positions, I’m not optimistic.
Getting away with it,
This is dF
no subject
on 2018-10-02 08:45 am (UTC)Thing is, once he's been confirmed, the Republican party is mostly finished. The at best 35% of diehard Trump moonbasers who carry him and whom are expected to carry every other R through midterms are not going to be enough to stop this without some serious - and I mean perfectly preposterous - Russian interference, which of course I don't put past them, nor the Russians. They're going to be voted out in midterms in a wave that makes the last tsunami to hit anywhere look like some ripple in a mud puddle. So win or lose, and liberal ideals might very well lose over at the SCOTUS, and women will lose, period, but we'll get them out of Congress one way or another.
Or at least, I hope. I don't think anyone's seeing the results of the collective anger that might come out of this correctly.
no subject
on 2018-10-02 01:04 pm (UTC)I do think that regardless of whether Kavanaugh is confirmed, the GOP is very likely to lose at least one branch of Congress by a margin that could be as big as the 1994 wave that helped them take it from the Demos. That may send a message to the GOP leadership.
On the other hand, a minority GOP will still have a sizeable presence in both houses, and meanwhile, a good 40% of the country is fully behind Trump for all kinds of reasons. So I don't think the GOP is going anywhere, and I don't think they're going to change their tune if/when they lose because that's a big MAGA base for them to establish a comeback.
Of course, thanks to the 2016 election my prediction capabilities are pretty much shot because all the old rules that govern electoral politics don't seem to apply anymore, so for all I know the GOP majority may get even bigger. I'm sure Russian bots will be a factor either way because I'm seeing at least as many fake news memes and hoaxes as I did in 2016 and people just keep insisting on circulating them even though we've been told repeatedly they're probably bot-generated and full of misinformation, but nooooooo ....
no subject
on 2018-10-03 01:44 am (UTC)I stayed up to watch election results by refreshing Google all night. The results started moving his way between 9-10pm if I recall correctly (I watched 'til 2am, then gave up and somehow dragged myself to bed). I wasn't surprised, just a bit shocked that the totals didn't prove that sinking feeling I had all wrong.
Again, I was too superstitious/afraid of starting negative network effects/didn't want to sound like an ass if my feeling turned out wrong, so I withheld sharing it on DW. In hindsight I'm not sorry, since it's a lot of Cassandra role-playing, anyhow. For every one person like me who has a feeling, there are all the rest who simply don't; the feeling gets drowned out by everyone who has the facts. Or so they claim.
a good 40% of the country is fully behind Trump for all kinds of reasons
Ya think. I don't know but I guess it's like splitting hairs: I'd say no more than 35% of them on his best day are still fanatical or capable of being whipped on the spot into fanaticism (and are the worst problem we'll ever have besides TRex and R Congresscritters themselves) while maybe another 10-20% either hold their noses or feel only mildly in favor. Trying to parse out how that affects his and in turn the R's vote totals is part art, part science, I guess. It seems no one has quite nailed either down, just yet.