[Non-emergency guest commentary from Team Def Political Horseplay Curator Lucky Bensonhurst]
So the 2013 elections are
over (where applicable), and of course the thing everyone wants to know is not so much “Who won?” as “What does it mean for POTUS 2016?”
Because state elections are fucking boring, Jim.
Some people are pointing to Terry McAuliffe and Bill de Blasio as a good sign for Demos, while others say that the wins by McAuliffe, Chris Christie and Bradley Byrne are
good news for both Establishment Republicans and sanity in general because they’re proof that the GOP’s Tea Party wing has worn out its welcome – what with the shutdown and all – and that the GOP is either going to ditch them in 2014 or implode trying, thus paving the way for a Hillary presidency in 2016 HURRAH.
I've been getting calls from Wolf Blitzer asking for my take on this – usually when I’m busy whacking cabbages with a tennis racquet (for therapeutic purposes), and my answer is usually along the lines of: “For fuck’s sake, Blitzer, the election is three fucking years away! Don't call this number again! I am making COLE SLAW!”
But as long as I’m typing all this …
For a start, I wouldn’t write the Tea Party off just yet. They may have made John Boehner look like a fool, but they still have a sizable following, significant financial backing and the most popular cable TV news network in the country in their corner. The GOP Establishment may be sick of their grandstanding crap, but as long as Tea Party candidates keep winning seats, there’s not a lot they can do about it. Whatever happened on Tuesday, 2014 is going to be the chief political barometer for the GOP’s near-future and the role of the Tea Party in it.
Meanwhile, if you believe Public Policy Polling, POTUS 2016 is going to come down to
Hillary Clinton vs A Republican.
The Hillary part is believable. She’s the obvious Demo choice right now, and any possible runner-up is a distant second. Even Handsome Joe Biden is 55 points behind Hillary. No surprise there – her fan base aside, Republicans have been hating on her at maximum volume since 1992, so she’ll be the most pre-vetted candidate in US history. We already know just about everything there is to know about her, so all the GOP can do is yell “BENGHAZI BENGHAZI BENGHAZI BENGHAZI GODDAMMIT BENGHAZI!” Which they do already. And unless they can come up with a better witness than
that guy on 60 Minutes, they’re really just preaching to the choir there.
As for the GOP side, according to PPP, the top contenders are Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush.
Yes, THAT Jeb Bush. I have my doubts about his chances, although he has the advantage of being an Establishment man who is more to the right than Christie, which will appeal to the conservative base who don’t trust Christie’s mod tendencies. Of course, I’m biased here – I really don’t want to live through a
third Bush presidency, though I confess there is a twisted appeal in seeing two Bush vs Clinton election races in my lifetime.
The fact that Paul and Cruz are still considered as serious contenders brings us back to the GOP’s Tea Party problem. Because as you may have noticed, both have a tendency to say
crazy very unorthodox things (though unlike Cruz, Paul can always say he was just
quoting somebody else), and yet they get a lot of support from people who are essentially convinced that the mod vote is irrelevant and Romney lost the election because he
wasn’t conservative enough. If either of them win the nomination, they’re not only going to ensure a Hillary presidency, but also drag the GOP even further down the batshit-rabbit hole than it already is.
But tradition dictates that won’t happen, and the GOP will ultimately go with the relatively moderate Establishment choice – which in this case could likely be Christie. Strategically he’s the smart bet right now if you want to pull the swing states. And if you are going up against Hillary, you will want to do that. Of course, that may depend who his running mate is. Romney and McCain were Establishment moderates too, and they both ended up being saddled with veeps that ended up spooking the horses.
But of course all this is idle speculation anyway. We’re at least 18 months away before anyone even declares their candidacy. For all we know, Hillary may be running against
Paul Ryan.
Or even Ted Nugent.
Sure,
why not?
– L. Bensonhurst