KARL ROVE CALLS THE ELECTION FOR OBAMA ... WAIT, WHAT?

[defrog]

Just in case this election cycle isn’t weird enough for you:

ITEM: Karl Rove – yes, THAT one – has been tracking state polls, and has concluded that, based on the latest info (i.e. as of October 3) that if the election were held right now, Obama would have enough electoral votes to win the election.

Like so.



Basically, Rove says, Obama would win every state John Kerry won in 2004, as well as New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado, putting him at 273 electoral votes. (A candidate needs 270 to win the ball game.) McCain would have 163. There are still 102 EVs that could go either way, but even if McCain gets all of them, he'll still lose.

Rove cautions that the latest data was taken before the VP debate, so you’ll have to wait until next week to see the impact in terms of statewide polls. And it goes without saying that four weeks is plenty of time to blow a lead and lose an election. They don’t call it the October Surprise for nothing.

But this is also the first time in this race that Obama’s projected EV count based on this kind of data has put him over the 270-vote mark. So unless McCain and Palin can successfully convince enough people that Obama spent his primary school years making pipe bombs in Bill Ayers’ basement, Obama may just have this in the bag.

On the other hand, this is Karl Rove we’re talking about here. So there MUST be some kind of evil reason for him to be saying all this.

Don’t dream it’s over,

This is dF

Comments

[popfiend.livejournal.com]

MSNBC has a similar map although Obama isn't over the top on their map yet.

But if McCain is employing this current strategy, I can only assume his internal polling is telling a similar or worse story.

[def-fr0g-42.livejournal.com]

Probably, though for the life of me I don't see how his current strategy is going to improve his numbers – though maybe that's because I just can't accept the idea of an America where that level of cheap fearmongering still works.

[popfiend.livejournal.com]

It works when you're afraid. It worked for Bush when the big bad was terrorists.

The big bad is the economy, he's hitting him with a 2004 weapon in 2008.